Analysis of Books 1, 2 and 3 of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale

The Keeneland September Yearling Sale presents itself every year as the great barometer of the health of the Thoroughbred industry in the United States. The auction is organized by Keeneland Association, a consortium made up of breeders and consignors that also operates the racecourse and sales complex in Lexington, Kentucky; the sale is the largest yearling market in the world and, across twelve sessions, ranges from elite stock destined for the Kentucky Derby to yearlings for regional circuits. The 2025 edition not only confirmed the vitality of the industry, it also left a trail of records and trends within the genetic sector that sketch the map of the future of the sport in the United States and beyond.

Keeneland Association, founded in 1935 by Hal Price Headley and a group of Fayette County breeders, is a nonprofit entity that aims to promote Thoroughbred breeding and racing. Its racecourse stages Grade 1 races every spring and fall, and its sales pavilion holds three annual auctions: January (horses of racing age, broodmares and late yearlings), September (yearlings of roughly a year and a half), and November (broodmares and weanlings). This current sale, which lasts almost two weeks, concentrates around 40% of North America’s yearling sales volume. For breeders and buyers, Keeneland is to genetics and bloodstock what Wall Street is to capital: the place where sporting dreams are priced and the quality of pedigrees is valued.

The sale runs from September 8–19, 2025 (no sales on the 13th), divided into 12 sessions grouped into 6 books. The first two Books correspond to the top 20% in pedigree, conformation, and commercial appeal; the following Books group, year after year, stock with graduated quality. The official figures are eloquent: at the end of the first week, four consecutive days of selling, $307,639,000 had changed hands for 671 horses, with 53 yearlings at $1 million or more, an increase of 31 over 2024. By the close of the sixth session (Book 3), the tally reached 1,216 yearlings sold for $417,622,000, 24 more than in the same period of 2024; the average stood at $343,439 (+19%) and the median at $250,000. The RNA rate hovered around 30%, indicative of a selective but not speculative market.

The 2025 figures are interpreted in a context of post-pandemic economic recovery and an industry with purses on the rise. Several factors contributed to the optimism: the strength of summer racing at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs, the limited supply of elite yearlings (around 4,000 fewer foals than the previous decade), and the appeal of U.S. tax rules allowing accelerated depreciation (bonus depreciation). Keeneland President & CEO Shannon Arvin described the atmosphere of the opening session as “exciting and electrifying,” with a packed pavilion and many new faces. Tony Lacy, Vice President of Sales, spoke of a market “logical and not overheated”; the fact that 15 Book 1 yearlings surpassed $1 million, the highest number since 2006, proves the point. Cormac Breathnach, Director of Sales Development, highlighted that the 15 top-priced lots went to 13 different buyers, by 12 sires and 11 consignors, a sign of depth and diversification.

Book 1 was held over two sessions, Monday the 8th and Tuesday the 9th of September, and gathered the most exclusive pedigrees. Here 106 yearlings sold on day one and 101 on day two. Opening day totaled $69,240,000 with a record average of $653,208 and a $537,500 median, with an RNA of 20.90%. In total, 15 yearlings made over $1 million. The top lot of the entire sale appeared on opening day, Hip 177 a colt by Gun Runner (Candy Ride) and the second foal out of the mare Thoughtfully (Tapit). He brought $3,300,000 and was purchased by M. V. Magnier (Coolmore), Peter Brant (White Birch Farm), a partner of Magnier’s operation, and Winchell, co-owner of the sire. The dam, Thoughtfully, won Saratoga’s Adirondack Stakes (G2) and earned $168,000 on the track. She brings the influence of Tapit and the family of G1 winner Furlough (Easy Goer). Buyers underlined his “stallion-prospect physical and pedigree,” which helps explain the price. Something similar happened in 2022, when Magnier bought a Gun Runner for $2,300,000, $1 million less than now, and that colt was named Sierra Leone, today one of the candidates to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Hip 177, highest of the sale, purchased by Magnier and Brant. / Keeneland Sales

The same duo, Magnier & Brant, paid $1,500,000 for a colt by the sensational Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) from the female line of Heavenly Cat (Tabasco Cat); his dam is a G2 winner with multiple G1 placings and $740,000 in earnings. Another Gun Runner colt brought $2,200,000 and was purchased by trainer Wesley Ward. He is a full brother to Early Voting, and the dam of Hip 243 is Amour d’Ete (Tiznow), already a G1 producer and a half sister to G1 winner and sire Speightstown (Gone West).

A colt by Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) bred by Hinkle Farms sold for $2,000,000 to David Lanigan for Mrs. Cindy Heider. Another Not This Time colt was secured by Saudi-based KAS Stables, through agent Pedro Lanz, for $1,700,000. Not This Time was the breakout sire of the sale, achieving an average above Curlin (Smart Strike), Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday), Justify (Scat Daddy) and Tapit (Pulpit).

A filly by Flightline, from his first crop, sold for $2,200,000 to LSU Stables. She is the first foal out of a Majesticperfection (Harlan’s Holiday) mare who was a multiple G3 winner in Kentucky and earned $495,000. Another Flightline made $1,700,000 to Japanese buyer Naohiro Sakaguchi. The presence of international buyers from Japan, Ireland and the Middle East reflects the market’s global reputation. Tony Lacy, Keeneland’s VP of Sales, spoke of a “fun” atmosphere with buyers enjoying the competition.

Book 1 prices confirmed the trend observed since 2021: polarization of demand. The leading buyers did not hesitate to pay premiums for individuals that combine classic pedigrees with current sire-line success on the track; at the same time, pressure on mid-priced lots remained contained. The $537,500 median is a good sign: the lower half of Book 1 still easily clears the half-million mark and provides value for investment or pin-hooking operations, where yearlings are bought to resell as two-year-olds in training.

In Book 2, 221 yearlings sold in its first session for $85,702,000 with a $387,792 average and a $325,000 median, a 22% increase over last year’s Book 2. The second session added another $77,752,000. Thus, Book 2 totaled $163,454,000 for 438 head, with a $372,599 average and a $300,000 median, both above 2024. Most notable was the number of millionaires: 13 yearlings topped $1 million in Book 2’s opening session, lifting the sale’s running total to 48 at that point.

Gun Runner colts shone again: Spendthrift Farm paid $1,900,000 for a son of the sire, closely related to Japanese champion Danon Decile. A Curlin colt cost $1,400,000 to Mike Ryan, who remarked there is “a genuine fever for quality,” adding that the filly to be sold in 2026 out of this family “should already be worth that price.” St. Elias, Albaugh Stables, West Point and Railbirds teamed up to purchase a Not This Time colt for $1,350,000, underscoring the growing respect for this young sire. Tony Lacy described the Book 2 market as “strong but realistic,” with a 30% RNA, sign buyers would pay premiums when quality warranted and pass on lots without added value.

Book 3 took place on Saturday and Sunday and set a historical revenue record for that segment. During the sixth session (Sunday), 267 yearlings sold for $48,184,000 with a $180,464 average and $150,000 median, up 26.9% and 36.36% respectively over 2024. The stars here were the Not This Time offspring: a colt bred by Summer Wind Equine out of Sweetened (Candy Ride) brought $875,000 to Repole Stable & St. Elias. This colt hails from the family of the great Zenyatta (Street Cry); his third dam is Vertigineux (Kris S.), the champion’s dam.

These prices indicate buyers were still willing to pay premiums for emerging-genetics colts even outside Book 2. Other notable Book 3 prices: a Tiz the Law colt at $675,000 to Donato Lanni, and several $600,000 yearlings by Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro), Nyquist (Uncle Mo), Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song) and Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway).

Books 4 and 5 (Monday to Wednesday of week two) held slightly lower averages and medians, suggesting the market normalizes as it moves away from the elite. However, demand stayed lively thanks to buyers active on regional circuits, state-bred incentive programs (New York-breds, Ontario-breds) and international groups seeking opportunities at reasonable prices. Total revenue at the sale’s close surpassed $450 million, according to Keeneland press notes (not time-stamped in this timeline, but verified by cumulative sums). With around 2,850 yearlings offered and a global clearance rate of ~74%, the auction solidified its reputation as a barometer for breeders.

The sale made clear which sires are viewed as the engine of the industry. A yearling’s valuation depends largely on the reputation and results of its sire. Below we analyze the stallions that generated the highest bids and the relationship between their stud fees and the prices of their yearlings.

Gun Runner, by Candy Ride and Quiet Giant by Giant’s Causeway, continued his hegemony. His offspring had earned over $13,500,000 in 2025 and he was sitting second on the sires’ list—until the Not This Time runners wreaked havoc at the Kentucky Downs meet in Franklin, Kentucky, winning million-dollar stakes plus multiple high-priced maidens and allowances, nudging Gun Runner back to third. During week one of the sale, 12 of his yearlings reached the million-dollar mark, averaging $887,436. In addition to the $3,300,000 top lot, Gun Runner featured atop Book 2 with the $1,900,000 colt bought by Spendthrift Farm (from the family of Japanese champion Danon Decile), another at $1,550,000 purchased by M. V. Magnier and White Birch Farm, and $1,250,000 colts knocked down to buyers such as AMO Racing, Spendthrift, Three Chimneys, Mike Repole, among other elite operations. Across the first three books, Gun Runner was the sire with the highest average.

Gun Runner’s appeal is data-driven. His first crop, foaled in 2019, produced graded winners such as Gunite, Taiba, Early Voting, Echo Zulu, Cyberknife and Society, early developers successful from sprint to middle distances. Genetically, Gun Runner blends Candy Ride, a speed/middle-distance line potent at the mile, with the Quiet Giant family, a sister to Roman Ruler, bringing stamina via Fappiano. Gun Runner also embodies the highly effective Candy Ride–Storm Cat nick, with Giant’s Causeway as maternal grandsire at his best. Buyers value that his yearlings have powerful builds and professional mindsets. Economically, with a $250,000 fee in 2024 and yearlings selling at averages nearly ten times that, the breeder margin is extraordinary, fueling confidence and competition for his stock.

Into Mischief, by Harlan’s Holiday and Leslie’s Lady by Tricky Creek, continues to lead the North American sires’ list by progeny earnings, just as he did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and, barring a surprise, will again in 2025, with $22,850,000 banked at the time of writing, over $7,000,000 ahead of second, with a marquee representative in Sovereignty pointing to add more on November 1 after the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

In Book 1, his progeny sold consistently above $1 million, highlighted by a $2,000,000 colt to Justin Casse, Magnier and White Birch, Hip 1197, from the same female line as millionaire Tapit Trice (Tapit). His 2025 stud fee stood at $250,000, the highest in the Western Hemisphere, and his yearling median reflected a conservative 4–5x multiple of the fee, a sign buyers still see value. Into Mischief (a son of Harlan’s Holiday) contributes early speed and precocity; his progeny excel at two and are notably consistent. While the “depth” of the 7–9 furlong niche can limit his impact at classic distances, his ability to produce elite sprinters and milers keeps his commercial appeal high. And with Sovereignty, he’s shown he can get the occasional stayer when matched with the right mare.

The revelation of the sale was Not This Time, by Giant’s Causeway and Miss Macy Sue by Trippi. With only four crops of racing age, the sale caught his stock at the perfect moment. In 2025, his runners lifted him to second on the general U.S. sires’ list by earnings, edging past Gun Runner by mid-September. The effect was felt at Keeneland, where his yearlings reached up to $2,000,000 and 14 hit the million mark. Likewise, Not This Time led all sires by gross in the first three books, with 56 yearlings selling for $38,855,000.

The reasons for this “boom” are several. A half brother to Liam’s Map and direct son of Giant’s Causeway, the stallion throws a notably athletic physique. His runners Epicenter, Up to the Mark and Cogburn became G1 winners at three, showing versatility on dirt and turf, over various distances, in California, New York, Kentucky, Florida and Dubai. All those G1 winners are out of different mares and broodmare sires, signaling tremendous versatility; with more seasons, an especially effective nick will likely crystallize. The September sale coincided with a streak of his runners’ victories at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs, whetting buyers’ appetites. 

The Keeneland Sales Pavilion is a spectacular stage.

Significantly, Not This Time offers a pedigree with an interesting second dam. Yada Yada (Great Above) carries a duplication to the mare Ta Wee (Intentionally) in 2Sx3D. Yada Yada also produced a stakes-winning mare—the dam of Not This Time—who not only produced this sensational stallion but also foaled the following black-type winners: her second foal, champion Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song), Taylor S (Medaglia d’Oro), a G2 winner, and the millionaire Matera (Tapit), sold for $1,400,000 at this same sale in 2018. His stud fee rose to $175,000 for 2025, but the return—measured by his Keeneland yearling average—comfortably exceeds that value, roughly a 5x multiple. For many breeders, Not This Time represents the continuation of Giant’s Causeway’s (Storm Cat) influence adapted to the modern era. Without doubt, Not This Time will sire many more graded winners—and, crucially, he profiles as a strong broodmare sire in time.

Flightline, by Tapit out of Feathered by Indian Charlie, retired unbeaten after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic by 8 lengths with a staggering 126 Beyer. With an initial $200,000 fee in 2023, his first yearlings were eagerly awaited at Keeneland. Prices were high: the priciest was the top-priced filly across the first three books—$2,200,000 to LSU Stables—mentioned earlier. Another colt brought $1,700,000 to Naohiro Sakaguchi and another $1,400,000 to Mayberry Farm for CRK Stable. These results showed confidence but also prudence: buyers value his athletic upside but haven’t yet seen his offspring race. Genetically, Flightline brings the Tapit line and the family of G1 winner Feathered (by Indian Charlie), with duplications of Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew in intermediate positions. The cost of his yearlings will only prove profitable if his runners replicate the sire’s talent; nevertheless, competition for the first offerings created headlines and kept the brand front-of-mind.

Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year, maintained his position as a “reliable classic” influence: a colt sold for $1,400,000 to Mike Ryan and his Book 1 presence generated robust averages. Tapit, patriarch of the A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) line, saw yearlings top $1 million, per Gainesway Farm reports. Nyquist, Justify, Practical Joke, Good Magic and Nyquist also sold well, reflecting buyer confidence in relatively young but proven sires. Yaupon, whose first two-year-olds earned over $1 million in summer racing in New York and California, had solid sales across Books 3–4. Vekoma (Candy Ride) sold a filly for $850,000 to Resolute Bloodstock (John Stewart), confirming his rise with his second crop. Vekoma’s average was $219,720; his 25 sold for a total of $5,493,000.

Collectively, the figures show buyers are willing to pay premiums for sires with racetrack performance and young stallions with upside. The dispersion of prices suggests the “middle class” of sires (fees $25,000–$50,000) also found liquidity, though their yearlings rarely surpassed $300,000. The correlation between stud fee and average price holds, but with variance: Not This Time and Gun Runner multiply fee values by 5–7, while others roughly double the cover cost.

The 2025 edition showed a market balanced between traditional major players and new investors. Among the leading buyers are; Coolmore & White Birch Farm (M. V. Magnier and Peter Brant): beyond the $3,300,000 colt, they bought an Into Mischief for $1,500,000 and a Gun Runner colt for $1,550,000. Coolmore continues to strengthen its North American base with colts aimed at the Triple Crown.

Repole Stable, sometimes in partnership with St. Elias Stables, led week 1 buyers, investing $14,085,000 in 32 yearlings. Their focus includes Not This Time, Gun Runner and Flightline yearlings. Purchasing advisor Jacob West emphasized they seek horses that can compete on the NYRA circuit and in America’s classic races.

Flying Dutchmen (Hunter Rankin and partners) led Thursday’s session with five purchases totaling $3,745,000, including a Life Is Good colt for $1,250,000 and a Not This Time filly for $1,000,000. Rankin highlighted that proven dams and strong families justify those prices.

Spendthrift Farm, a traditional consignor, acted as a strategic buyer: they acquired the $1.9 million Gun Runner colt and other Not This Time lots. One of the highest average tickets among buyers: 8 purchases for $8,700,000, an average of $1,087,500 for Tamara Hughes and Eric Gustavson’s operation leaded by Ned Toffey.

Donato Lanni worked as agent for major owners trained by the Bob Baffert team in California. SF Racing, Starlight and Madaket acquired 20 lots across the first three books. Present as advisor, Bob Baffert called the sale a “frenzy” for quality, sign buyers don’t want to miss out.

St. Elias, Albaugh, West Point and Railbirds joined forces to buy a Not This Time colt for $1.35 million, an example of owner alliances to spread risk and increase bidding power.

International buyers: Japan’s Naohiro Sakaguchi purchased two Flightline colts for $1.7m and $1.5m. Beyond Europe, buyers from the Middle East and UAE were active on Into Mischief and Nyquist lots, reflecting market globalization.

Geographically, Keeneland reported buyers from 25 countries participated, with strong presence from Japan, Ireland, Canada and Gulf nations. This diversity helps mitigate U.S. market volatility and confirms the American Thoroughbred’s export appeal. Also, in the remaining three books, prices will ease, allowing many other clients to access yearlings.

On the supply side, consignors play a key role. Week 1’s leading consignor was Taylor Made Sales Agency, with $46,815,000 in sales for 108 yearlings. Taylor Made, founded by the Taylor family, is known for a diverse portfolio and ability to attract global buyers. Next came Hill ’n’ Dale at Xalapa, consignor of the $3,300,000 colt. Four Star Sales consigned the $1.55 million Gun Runner colt out of Twenty Carat, from the family of Shared Account (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner). Dixiana Farm sold a Flightline colt for $1.4 million and a Not This Time for $775,000..

Taylor Made’s show string ahead of sale days. / Keeneland Sales

Among breeders, standouts included Summer Wind Equine, responsible for the $875,000 Not This Time colt; Spendthrift Farm, which, beyond buying, also sold million-dollar yearlings; Gainesway Farm, which told media that Tapit’s yearlings hit record figures; and several Canadian breeders who, according to Canadian Thoroughbred, placed Ontario-bred yearlings at unprecedented prices. The success of Ontario-breds (Ontario’s incentive program) shows the importance of state bonuses in commercial values, as with New York-breds.

The distribution of the top lots, Gun Runner, Not This Time, Flightline and Into Mischief, across various consignors reflects that quality isn’t concentrated in a single farm. Even so, farms with global partnerships, like Hill ’n’ Dale (John Sikura), Taylor Made or Three Chimneys Farm (owners and home of Gun Runner), tend to attract top buyers thanks to confidence in their selection and horsemanship.

A fundamental part of yearling valuation is pedigree interpretation—analyzing not just sire achievements but the mare’s lines, duplications of key ancestors, and the interaction of sire and dam lines. Science and art meet at Keeneland, and the 2025 edition left clear genetic signals.

The Argentine Candy Ride, by Ride the Rails out of Candy Girl (Candy Stripes), is the patriarch of family {13-c}. Unbeaten in 6 starts and Pacific Classic winner in record time at Del Mar, he became one of the most influential sires of the last decade in the U.S. His chief heir, Gun Runner, dominates lists and sales; Twirling Candy sits fourth on the 2025 earnings list; Vekoma, Metropolitan Mile winner, debuted as a sire with ~2% stakes winners to runners and sold $850,000 yearlings; Rock Your World, with his first crop on the track, ranks fifth among freshman sires with 11% black-type runners and is now a G3 sire thanks to Taken By The Wind at Churchill Downs.

This “Candy Ride economy” is based on the patriarch’s ability to transmit speed, intermediate stamina and miler capability without saturating the pedigree with close duplications of Northern Dancer (Nearctic) or Mr. Prospector (Raise A Native). His line crosses well with mares from Storm Cat and A.P. Indy sire lines. At Keeneland, buyers pay premiums for Candy Ride and his descendants because the pedigree demonstrates versatility and high efficacy.

Not This Time represents the refreshed Giant’s Causeway line. His runners Epicenter (second in the 2022 Kentucky Derby and Travers winner) and Up to the Mark (triple G1 winner on turf) showed he can sire top performers on dirt and turf from a mile to 12 furlongs. Very recently he added two new G1 winners—Troubleshooting at Kentucky Downs and Sacred Wish in Del Mar’s Matriarch Stakes (G1). This versatility translates to the market: buyers see Not This Time as a play for the Triple Crown but also for turf, opening the door to European or Japanese clients.

Tapit, by Pulpit out of Tap Your Heels (Unbridled), has long dominated as a sire of long-distance classic horses, Essential Quality, Tonalist, Cupid and Frosted among them. His stock can take time to mature, but top buyers invest because Tapit’s colts often turn into quality runners and stallion prospects. Duplications to A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew, adding cardiovascular “engine”, are sought for mares with speed lines. He also brings a Nijinsky (Northern Dancer) component that provides substantial stamina. At Keeneland 2025, Tapit maintained a high profile with Book 1 yearlings selling well above $1 million. His son Flightline looms as a successor, though his produce has yet to race and will need on-track validation.

Buyers follow “nicks”, historically effective crosses. The Gun Runner–Tapit cross produced the $3,300,000 colt; the Not This Time, Tapit combination yielded the $1,700,000 colt, showing Tapit is announcing himself as an excellent broodmare sire.

The Into Mischief blend with mares by Bernardini has already produced the crack, dual classic winner Sovereignty, and in this sale returned a $1.5 million yearling. In general, buyers seek combinations that balance speed and stamina.

By the close of the sixth session (mid-sale), total receipts were $417,622,000 for 1,216 yearlings with a $343,439 average and $250,000 median, more than 24% above last year’s figure. With more sessions ahead, projections pointed to a final around $450 million. The RNA rate (yearlings not reaching reserve and bought back by their breeders) hovered near 30%, an acceptable level signaling both selectivity and commercial strength.

For breeders, profitability depends on multiplying the stud fee by a factor (often 2–5) to cover breeding, upkeep and consignment costs. Gun Runner and Not This Time returned bteween 5 to 7 times their fees, providing generous margins. In the middle tier (Yaupon, Good Magic, Practical Joke), multiples were 2–3, enough to cover costs but without huge profits. Sires below $15,000 saw yearlings trade $40,000–$80,000, allowing regional breeders to recoup if placed in Books 4–6.

From the buyers’ perspective, the key question is break-even: how much must the horse earn in purses to justify its price? With a $1 million Kentucky Derby and rising purses in New York and California, a $400,000 yearling needs to win a stake or multiple allowances to break even. However, the industry offers other paths to recover investment through resale (pin-hooking) and through stallion or broodmare residual value if the horse succeeds on the track.

Participation from Asia and the Middle East stabilizes the market. Japan, for instance, has adopted a selective import model geared to staying and turf racing; Naohiro Sakaguchi’s purchase of a Flightline colt points to prolonging Tapit’s influence in Japan’s program. UAE and Qatar target milers and sprinters for their winter seasons; they bought Into Mischief and Not This Time yearlings. Canada and South America were present with modest operations, leveraging incentive programs to favor purchases of home-bred yearlings.

This diversity helps buffer reliance on the U.S. market. In 2008–2009, the financial crisis dragged prices lower due to a collapse in local demand; today, global balance reduces volatility. Keeneland reported buyers from 25 countries bid on yearlings in Books 1 and 2. If one region trims investment, others can compensate, lending the market resilience.

The 2025 edition offers several lessons for breeders and consignors. Taylor Made and other leading consignors underline the importance of raising correct yearlings with deep pedigrees. Book 1’s tight curation at just 207 yearlings shows the elite is increasingly selective. Mid-sized breeders should aim to place a product in Books 2–3 to achieve positive returns.

Disparity in fee multiples shows not all sires offer the same ROI. Gun Runner and Not This Time are near-term “safe bets”; patience and investment in a rising stallion such as Yaupon, Vekoma, or Rock Your World can generate outsized returns if their first runners deliver. On the mare side, buyers pay premiums for producers of stakes horses or well-recognized families. Investing in quality mares and maintaining impeccable veterinary records is essential. Seven-figure yearling purchases are often done in partnership, Magnier, Tabor and Smith partnering with Peter Brant and White Birch, or St. Elias partnering with Albaugh and Railbirds and, elsewhere, with Mike Repole. This diversifies risk and enables bidding on individuals no single party could secure alone.

Economically, the sale shows a healthy market. Total receipts north of $450 million mark the highest ever for the September sale. The record 56 million-dollar yearlings across the first three books clearly evidences that capital for elite stock is available. Nonetheless, an RNA near 30% and the gap between average and median, an average inflated by top prices, indicate the breeding “middle class” needs solid product to find higher prices. Market globalization, with buyers from 25 countries, offers breeders outlets to new clients and entry into other markets.

Looking to 2026 and beyond, the success of the yearlings bought this year on the track will determine whether the bubble expands or stabilizes. If Flightline’s first runners confirm the sire’s talent, we could see a jump for his yearlings in the 2026–2027 sales. Should Not This Time continue producing graded winners, his fee and yearling prices will adjust accordingly. The quality of mares and breeders’ capacity to invest in top-tier genetics will remain decisive. In an increasingly sophisticated, demanding market, where genetic information, biomechanical and phenotypic evaluation, and data science play growing roles, Keeneland September will remain the showcase where the future of the North American Thoroughbred industry is projected.