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The Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul (G1), Rio’s Derby run on the turf at Hipódromo da Gávea last Sunday, crowned Oderich (Drosselmeyer) as the best colt of the 2022 crop in Brazil and marked a historic day for trainer Luiz Esteves and stallion Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor). The bay colt, co-owned by Haras Cariri Pe and Stud Sampaio and bred at Haras Anderson, delivered a performance of quality that confirmed the talent of this promising runner. Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul (G1) between Oderich (Drosselmeyer) and Zucca Baby (Hofburg). The 2,400-meter race was decided in a head-to-head duel between Oderich (by Drosselmeyer out of Energia Garoa, by Agnes Gold) and the consistent Zucca Baby (Hofburg), representing the successful Doce Vale stable. Ridden by Altair Domingos, Oderich circled wide on the final turn and entered the stretch on even terms with Zucca Baby. The pair engaged in a stretch battle that was decided by a nose in favor of Oderich, who stopped the clock in 2:26.49. The race confirmed the stamina of Drosselmeyer’s progeny on heavy going and left Zucca Baby—who had defeated him by more than four lengths in the Paula Machado a month earlier—as a strong contender for the Grande Prêmio Brasil (G1) on June 14. After the race, Domingos told the press: “I’m very grateful for the opportunity. Esteves gave me great confidence after the horse worked. He told me, ‘on Sunday he will win, the horse is doing well.’ The race unfolded perfectly, and to win everything has to go right… he won where the money was, and that’s what matters,” he said with a smile. After the race, co-owner Thiago Godoy, in tears, declared: “The Derby is different. It is the most important race in the country. We have a special love for the Grande Prêmio Brasil; I’m at a loss for words. Rio is the city I love, and winning a race like this here is incredible.” The victory marked Luiz Esteves’ third Carioca Derby win and reinforced the dominance of the trainer based at the Verde e Preto training center. Oderich only joined Esteves’ stable in January. Esteves said: “I received the horse in a short timeframe to run the second leg of the Triple Crown. He ran well, and I firmly believed he would win the Derby. He is a very good, very genuine horse.” Six runners trained by Esteves finished among the first seven in the Derby—excluding only the runner-up—confirming his dominance over this generation. Hours later, Esteves captured another Group 1, this time for three-year-old fillies, the Grande Prêmio Zélia Gonzaga Peixoto de Castro (G1), with Odalisca (Sangarius out of Jennifer Aniston, by Kodiak Kowboy). Ridden by Hélder Fernandes, she drew clear of co-favorite Veil (Can The Man) and stopped the clock in 2:27.11, completing a double that cemented Esteves as the leading figure in Brazilian racing today. Behind the achievements of Oderich and Gevrey-Chambertain stands Drosselmeyer. The son of Distorted Humor—recently elevated to the “Intermediate-Classic” chef-de-race category—stands at Haras Old Friends in Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul, and continues to produce elite runners at 19 years of age, after winning both the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On the same card, his daughter Gevrey-Chambertain won the Clássico José Carlos Fragoso Pires (G2), giving the stallion a Group double in a single afternoon. Drosselmeyer’s genetics, combining Distorted Humor with the influence of the Seattle Slew family, adapt to both dirt and turf and have performed particularly well with mares of Japanese lines, as evidenced by the presence of Agnes Gold in Oderich’s pedigree. In the 2023 crop, two daughters of Drosselmeyer are already standing out. Iluminada, bred and owned by Haras Old Friends and Júlio Camargo (president of the ABCPCC), is trained in Rio by J. C. Sampaio and has already won the Clássico Ministério da Agricultura (L) and a maiden in just three starts. Another stakes winner is Vip Na Balada, who has dominated among fillies at Cidade Jardim in São Paulo, remaining unbeaten in three starts and emerging as a leading contender for the João Cecílio Ferraz (G1), the first top-level race for fillies of the generation. Haras Anderson, based in Bagé, has reduced its broodmare band in recent years, but the quality of its production remains evident. From its paddocks have emerged champions such as London Moon (Agnes Gold), one of the best milers in Brazil in recent years, now retired to stud at the same farm. Oderich, bred there, represents the continuation of a breeding philosophy focused on stamina and aptitude for classic distances. The Doce Vale operation, founded by Alfredo Grumser, did not leave empty-handed. Although Zucca Baby finished second again, the son of Hofburg remains remarkably consistent and is one of the early favorites for the G.P. Brasil (G1) in June. Doce Vale also fielded Vivi Magique, the very fast daughter of Can the Man (Into Mischief), out of a Fluke (Wild Event) mare, who returned in the Grade 3 race named after the farm’s founder. Vivi Magique will target the G.P. Major Suckow (G1), a sprint for older horses during the Brasil meeting. Fluke, with only 29 registered offspring—19 of them fillies—is emerging as an elite broodmare sire; from his limited production have come the G1 winners Nostalgie and the Triple Crown winner No Regrets, which increases expectations for Vivi Magique as a future broodmare at the farm managed by Dr. Marcio Stanicki. Video of the Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul (G1). The 2022 Brazilian crop shows significant potential. Alongside Oderich and Zucca Baby, Torres Garcia and Uncle King, who completed the Derby order, also earned their place in the Grande Prêmio Brasil (G1). In recent years, the Rio de Janeiro Triple Crown route has become a key pathway to the country’s most prestigious race, highlighted by the fact that five of the last six Derby winners have gone on to compete strongly in the Grande Prêmio Brasil. It was a memorable day at Gávea, and Jockey Club Brasileiro president Raul Lima Neto commented on the event: “Another festive day and another day with a full grandstand, with a different crowd. A crowd bringing children, young people, and families. We know this audience may not directly impact betting turnover, but it represents renewal, bringing new fans to the sport.” With the Grande Prêmio Brasil on the horizon, the protagonists of Gávea now prepare for a compelling generational clash.

The Dosage system was developed to provide breeders and bettors with a numerical way to evaluate the balance of speed and stamina inherited by a horse. The method is not a magic formula; it was built from the observation that a small number of influential stallions transmit traits of precocity or stamina to their descendants. At the beginning of the 20th century, the French military officer J. J. Vuillier began identifying these sires, which he called chefs-de-race (literally “masters of the breed”), grouping them according to aptitude. The Italian researcher Franco Varola expanded the idea in the 1960s. The system remained relatively obscure until columnist Leon Rasmussen published an article in 1981 in the Daily Racing Form introducing the approach of Steven A. Roman, PhD, a scientist who refined Dosage using statistical analysis. In his book Dosage: Pedigree & Performance , Roman argues that his research is empirical and supported by tables and regression models to relate Dosage and distance. According to Roman, winners of classic races usually present a Dosage Index (DI) between 2.00 and 2.60, while pure sprinters fall between 4.00 and 4.75. This approach influenced breeding and yearling selection in the following decades. Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) in his paddock at Spendthrift Farm, Lexington, Kentucky. Dosage is a numerical tool that attempts to quantify the balance of speed and stamina in a pedigree. Unlike other analyses, it does not attempt to examine the entire family tree, but focuses only on those stallions that have demonstrated exceptional influence on the breed: the chefs-de-race . Currently, more than 200 chefs are recognized. Each chef contributes points to the immediate generations of the horse analyzed: 16 points if present in the first generation (sire), 8 in the second (grandparents), 4 in the third (great-grandparents), and 2 in the fourth. This weighting is based on the idea that an ancestor’s influence diminishes with each generation. Only recognized chefs contribute points; any other stallion, no matter how famous, does not enter into the calculation. The chefs are classified into five aptitude groups, covering the full spectrum between speed and stamina. These groups are Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional (B, I, C, S, and P), ordered from least to greatest stamina. A chef-de-race may belong to more than one category; for example, Mr. Prospector is classified as Brilliant/Classic, so his points are divided equally between both categories. This reflects that certain stallions transmit both speed and stamina. The sum of all points generated by the chefs in each category constitutes the Dosage Profile (DP), a series of five numbers showing how much influence the horse inherited in each aptitude. For example, a sprinter such as Squirtle Squirt showed a DP leaning to the left with a majority of points in the Brilliant category, indicating a predominance of speed. In contrast, the stayer Spring Marathon had the highest figure in the Professional category, reflecting a strong inclination toward stamina. Roman’s book emphasizes that the DP should not be analyzed only by the total number of points, but by their distribution. In chapter 10, it states that the DP is “the core of modern Dosage methodology” and that the way points are distributed significantly affects performance; horses with at least ten points in the Brilliant category are more likely to win in speed races than those with fewer than ten, even if both share the same DI. The Dosage Index is a simple ratio: speed points (Brilliant + Intermediate + half of Classic) are divided by stamina points (Solid + Professional + the other half of Classic). A DI of 1.00 indicates a perfect balance; high values (above 3.0) point to a greater proportion of speed and, according to Roman, are characteristic of horses suited to shorter distances. Historically, it was claimed that no Kentucky Derby winner had a DI above 4.00, although Strike the Gold’s victory in 1991 with an initial DI of 9.0 demonstrated that exceptions exist. After Alydar was recognized as a chef and added stamina points, Strike the Gold’s DI was corrected to 2.6. The Center of Distribution (CD) marks the balance point of the profile. It is calculated using the formula [(2 × Brilliant + Intermediate) – (Solid + 2 × Professional)] divided by the total points. The CD is expressed on a scale from +2.00 (pure sprinters) to –2.00 (extreme stayers). For example, Lochsong, a European sprint champion, had a DP of 6-0-0-0-0 (only Brilliant points) and a CD of +2.00, indicating purely speed influence. Although Dosage has been a useful tool for approximating aptitude, Roman warns that his method is not a traditional statistical system. The 2002 edition of Dosage: Pedigree & Performance insists that conclusions are based on race data, but interpretation must combine science and art. Roman himself acknowledges that the Dosage Index is a guide, not a law: “There are statistical principles that will hold true in most cases, but exceptions will always arise.” Some experts note that chef lists were not updated quickly enough, so modern pedigrees could include few or no chefs, producing extreme DIs that did not reflect a horse’s true ability. In 2023, Roman thoroughly revised the North American chef list for the first time in a decade. According to a letter published by The Dirty Horse Club , 24 highly influential stallions were identified, 23 of them new chefs-de-race. The team analyzed each stallion’s progeny, calculating the Average Winning Distance (AWD) and the average Center of Distribution of their winners. When a stallion had at least three offspring among the top 150 in the statistics, it was evaluated whether assigning it to a category aligned the average CD of its winners with the expected value. For example, Tapit’s offspring had an average winning distance of 8.67 furlongs and an average CD of 0.69; classifying Tapit as Classic adjusted the CD to 0.45, consistent with a classic-type stallion. This update eliminates the need for “ non-chef notable sires ” lists and integrates Australian/New Zealand chefs into the main list, improving profile accuracy. Roman also notes that conduit mares — those that amplify or attenuate chef influence in the female line — remain important, but the new chefs reduce reliance on extreme scores and allow maternal influence to be more subtle. Roman added nineteen contemporary American stallions along with some imports influencing North America. They were classified by aptitude as follows: Sire Category Munnings Brilliant – Intermediate In Excess Brilliant – Intermediate Speightstown Brilliant – Intermediate Rubiano Brilliant – Intermediate Into Mischief Brilliant – Classic Elusive Quality Brilliant – Classic More Than Ready Brilliant – Classic Candy Ride Brilliant – Classic Uncle Mo Intermediate – Classic Street Cry Intermediate – Classic Scat Daddy Intermediate – Classic Quality Road Intermediate – Classic Distorted Humor Intermediate – Classic Tiznow Intermediate – Classic Quiet American Classic Medaglia d’Oro Classic Curlin Classic Tapit Classic Kitten’s Joy Classic Dynaformer Classic Empire Maker Classic – Solid English Channel Solid – Professional Alleged Classic – Professional Brilliant (4f–6f), Intermediate (7f–9f), Classic (10f–12f), Solid (13f–15f), Professional (16f+). Among the new chefs, Candy Ride stands out as the fourth Argentine stallion on the list after Congreve, Sideral, and Forli. Candy Ride was unbeaten in Argentina and the United States, setting a world record at one mile and a track record in the Pacific Classic. As a stallion, he has produced champions on dirt and turf such as Gun Runner and Shared Belief. His classification as Brilliant/Classic reflects his ability to transmit both early speed and classic-distance aptitude. His predecessors had similar impact. Congreve (1924) became a patriarch of Argentine breeding; Sideral, by Seductor, excelled in stamina races and sired stayers; Forli, unbeaten in Argentina, was exported to the United States and influenced global breeding through horses like Thatch, Lisadell, and Special. The inclusion of these 23 stallions has immediate practical effects for breeders and analysts, beginning with a structural correction of extreme profiles. Previously, pedigrees dominated by lines such as Into Mischief, Tapit, or Curlin produced artificially unbalanced Dosage Profiles because these sires did not contribute points as chefs. Their influence was diluted across generations, inflating the DI above 4.0 and misrepresenting true aptitude. Now, with proper classification, points are assigned correctly, reducing inflated indices and eliminating the need for manual adjustments. At the same time, the system achieves finer differentiation between pure speed and functional balance. Stallions like Munnings, Speightstown, Rubiano, and In Excess classified as Brilliant–Intermediate show they are not strictly sprinters, while Candy Ride, More Than Ready, and Elusive Quality as Brilliant–Classic confirm dual capacity. This changes DP interpretation: it is no longer enough to look at Brilliant weight; distribution toward Classic becomes key. This update also integrates the contemporary reality of North American breeding. Including dominant stallions like Into Mischief, Curlin, Tapit, and Uncle Mo ensures the system reflects modern genetics rather than past snapshots. Roman justifies this with statistical consistency in producing stakes winners across surfaces and distances. Operationally, breeders must recalibrate analyses. Crosses that once appeared unbalanced may now show harmony. For example, a Munnings × Tapit mating now generates direct points in Brilliant–Intermediate and Classic, altering the profile. This influences mating decisions and improves versatility and commercial appeal. Dosage should not be seen as a predictive formula, but as a complementary indicator. Roman explains that a DI between 2.0 and 2.6 correlates with success at 10–12 furlongs, yet acknowledges that breeding and training cannot be reduced to numbers. Triple Crown history shows horses with DIs above 4.0 can still win the Kentucky Derby under the right conditions. The system’s main strength lies in its reference value: it indicates whether a pedigree leans toward speed or stamina and allows comparison within crops. It also helps bettors eliminate pure sprinters in staying races. Weaknesses include past lack of updates (now corrected), omission of some influential sires through female lines, and the fact that only stallions are scored, though mares are crucial. Roman recognizes this through the concept of conduit mares. Dosage has endured for over a century as a practical tool to understand pedigree balance. Steven A. Roman’s work provided statistical grounding and periodic updates. His book explains its history, methodology, and applications, showing how science and empiricism can guide decisions. The addition of 23 new chefs modernizes the system, reduces extreme indices, and offers a more accurate reading of inherited aptitude. For breeders, it is an invitation to reassess mating strategies; for analysts, a reminder that no index replaces a full evaluation of conformation, performance, and environment. Speed and stamina remain the foundation, but interpretation will always remain an art.

Butterfing, the gray colt from Stud El Papi, wrote a new chapter in his short career by winning the Gran Premio de Honor (G1) held last Saturday, April 4, at Hipódromo de Palermo. With only four starts in his campaign and conditioned by late physical maturity, the son of Angiolo and Candy Milk lived up to expectations by defeating an experienced field over 2000 meters on a heavy dirt track. The horse trained by Juan Franco Saldivia now leads among stayers at Palermo, with his sights set on the Gran Premio República Argentina next May 1. Butterfing’s trajectory is a study in patience and responsible management, and his genealogy connects to some of the most influential maternal families in international Thoroughbred racing. Kevin Banegas celebrates aboard Butterfing (Angiolo) his consolidation in the Gran Premio de Honor. The Gran Premio de Honor was run with nine participants and a clear favoritism toward Butterfing. The gray broke from post 7 and was placed in third by jockey Kevin Banegas while Buen Escocés (Bodemeister) set the pace followed by Need You Tonight (Hat Ninja). The dirt track was wet after morning rain, requiring every move to be measured. Approaching the final 800 meters, Banegas began to edge closer calmly to the leaders and, 300 meters from the finish, asked his mount in the center of the track. Butterfing took command with ease and, although Need You Tonight attacked along the rail, he held a half-length advantage to win in 2:02.79. Third place went to El Emporio two and a half lengths back, while Buen Escocés and Endler completed the board. The race confirmed the impression from his previous outing, where he had won by eight lengths in an allowance over the same distance. This victory established Butterfing as one of the most promising three-year-olds in Argentina. He debuted late on May 24, 2025, in the Especial Julio Félix Penna, a race for debuting colts over 1600 meters at Palermo. That day, Saldivia’s trainee raced just off the early pace and in the stretch advanced easily to defeat Friends Are Friends by five lengths in 1:35.15. The performance was so convincing that his trainer decided to give him a long 168-day break to allow him to mature; the professional revealed that Butterfing “felt the races a lot” due to his physical immaturity and preferred to space his runs. That pause ended in November 2025, when the gray returned in the Gran Premio Nacional (G1), the most important 2500-meter race for three-year-old colts. There, he ran from behind and finished third, three lengths behind the winner Gordianus, alongside Winston. The effort, though below expectations, showed that Butterfing needed shorter distances and further development. After the Nacional, Saldivia’s team mapped out a measured path. Butterfing was rested another two months to allow his body to absorb the effort. He returned in February 2026 in a conditions race over 2000 meters, the same distance as the Gran Premio de Honor. With a patient Banegas, he controlled the pace and pulled away to win by eight lengths. That victory made him the favorite for the Honor and removed doubts about his ability to repeat at the distance and surface. On G1 day, Banegas followed a similar script: he waited for the stretch and released the horse at the right moment. Timing management was key, as the heavy track punished the front-runners. The margin was not overwhelming, but the performance was solid: the gray showed mental maturity and responsiveness, leaving the impression that he still has room to improve. Post-race statements reinforced the idea that Butterfing is only just entering his prime. His trainer, Juan Franco Saldivia, told the media that the horse “is very talented and still in development.” He explained that as a young horse he showed a lot of sensitivity after each race and required several months to recover. “We didn’t want to rush him; we preferred to respect his timing and today he rewards us,” he said. Jockey Kevin Banegas highlighted the horse’s intelligence: “when I ask him, he responds instantly; he feels everything and, although he is still learning, he has an incredible turn of foot.” The owners confirmed that his next target will be the Gran Premio República Argentina, the most important race for stayers on the Buenos Aires calendar. Beyond careful management, Butterfing’s success is supported by an interesting genetic combination. His sire Angiolo, an Argentine horse by Grand Reward (Storm Cat), was a notable sprinter: he won the Gran Premio Santiago Luro (G1), the Clásico Guillermo Kemmis (G2), and finished second in the Gran Premio Estrellas Sprint (G1). As a stallion, he has stood out for transmitting speed and competitive temperament. Angiolo is responsible for fast colts such as Arellano, Ansia Clara, Mery Laurent and others who have succeeded at the group level. The presence of Storm Cat in his sire line contributes explosiveness, while the background of Sir Ivor and Fappiano reinforces stamina. The dam Candy Milk adds a different dimension. This gray mare is a daughter of the international champion Candy Ride, unbeaten in Argentina and winner of the Pacific Classic (G1) in the United States. She was purchased as a weanling at the Keeneland November Sales in 2008 by Rodolfo Lamperti and sent to Argentina as a yearling, where she did not race due to injury. Candy Milk began her broodmare career at Haras San Lorenzo de Areco and in 2015 produced Cima de Areco, a gray filly by Cima de Triomphe who remained undefeated in four starts, including the Gran Premio Enrique Acebal (G1) and the Federico de Alvear (G2). That filly was later sold to Japanese breeders and exported to the United States to train with Graham Motion. The following year, Candy Milk was bred to Angiolo and Butterfing was born, demonstrating that the mare produces both with European bloodlines (Cima de Triomphe) and with domestic stallions. A deeper look at the female line shows that Butterfing descends from the influential family branch of Imanative. This daughter of Native Dancer — a horse that revolutionized breeding in North America — won only one race but produced five stakes winners, including Fairway Phantom. Her main legacy came through her daughters. Inreality Star, by In Reality, produced the champion juvenile Meadow Star, multiple G1 winner including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Mother Goose. Meadow Star later became the maternal granddam of Arrogate, hero of the Travers Stakes by 13½ lengths and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, and Dubai World Cup, whose progeny include Secret Oath (Kentucky Oaks winner), Arcangelo (Belmont Stakes and Travers), and Seize The Grey, winner of the Preakness. Another daughter of Imanative, Fairway Star, produced the stallion Wall Street Dancer and opened the branch leading to Tonalist’s Shape, winner of the Davona Dale Stakes and Forward Gal at Gulfstream Park. The line has also produced the gray mare Belle Gallantey, winner of the Delaware Handicap and the Beldame Stakes. The fact that Butterfing shares ancestry with Arrogate and Meadow Star, both large gray horses, suggests that Imanative’s physical inheritance continues to express itself. Grays from this family tend to show robust bodies, strong toplines, and great lung capacity; characteristics observed in Butterfing since his early days. Moreover, the combination of speed lines (Angiolo/Storm Cat) and stamina (Candy Ride, Native Dancer) gives him a balance highly valued in breeding. This duality is reflected in his ability to produce sustained speed in the decisive stages of longer races. Butterfing’s victory came at a time of renewal for Argentine racing, where other notable three-year-olds have emerged. Gordianus, his conqueror in the Nacional, later suffered a minor physical issue and did not run in the Honor; El Emporio had just won the Clásico Otoño (G2), while Need You Tonight was returning after finishing second in the Gran Premio San Martín (G1). The quality of the field enhances the value of the son of Angiolo’s win. Weather also played a role: the track was heavy and favored those who managed their energy. Butterfing raced in fourth position for most of the trip, avoiding early exertion and unleashing his run in the final meters. The Gran Premio República Argentina (G1), scheduled for May 1, will be his next objective. This 2500-meter race is the premier test for stayers at Palermo and brings together the best older horses and three-year-olds. Competing there will mean facing experienced stayers again and increasing the distance challenge, as Butterfing has only won over 2000 meters. However, his pedigree and running style indicate he should handle the stretch to 2500 meters without issue. Saldivia must decide whether to give him another prep to maintain fitness or arrive directly after a month of training. In any case, fans eagerly await the performance of the gray colt, who aims to match the feat of his maternal half-sister Cima de Areco, a national heroine. A comparative analysis helps measure Butterfing’s achievement. Meadow Star, granddaughter of Imanative, was champion juvenile in the United States and earned more than $1.4 million. Belle Gallantey, a great-granddaughter, rose from a $35,000 claim to become a dual G1 winner. Tonalist’s Shape, another descendant, won the Hollywood Wildcat Stakes by 3¾ lengths. Arrogate, perhaps the most famous of the line, earned $17.4 million and became a global star before beginning a stud career that has already produced champions. While Butterfing is still far from those figures, his projection is significant within the Argentine context. In South America, prize money ceilings are lower and international opportunities are fewer, but the genetics remain the same. Butterfing’s progression shows how talent requires time and planning to develop. From his winning debut in the Especial Julio Félix Penna to his coronation in the Gran Premio de Honor, less than eleven months have passed, with only four starts. Saldivia and the Stud El Papi team have managed him carefully, respecting his growth. Each return to the track has resulted in improved performance. The strategy has been rewarded with a G1 and the promise of an even brighter future. From a genetic standpoint, Butterfing is the result of a cross designed to combine speed and stamina. Angiolo provides the initial spark and Storm Cat genetics, while Candy Milk transmits the class of Candy Ride and the depth of Imanative. His gray color and robust physique recall Arrogate and other descendants of his female line, suggesting further development ahead. Examples such as Meadow Star, Belle Gallantey, Tonalist’s Shape, and Arrogate show that family {16-g} can produce champions capable of excelling on different stages. The challenge for Butterfing will be to sustain his level over longer distances and against more experienced horses. On May 1, in the Gran Premio República Argentina, he will face established stayers and must prove that the quality of his female line and the patience of his team translate into competitive superiority. If he succeeds, he will confirm himself as the new standard-bearer of Argentine racing and add his name to the list of great gray descendants of Imanative.

Further Ado earned yesterday the most important victory of his emerging campaign by winning in dominant fashion the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) run at Keeneland. The race, one of the major spring events in the United States, awarded 100 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby and brought together seven three-year-old colts headed by the chestnut representing Spendthrift Farm. Despite the expectations surrounding the different contenders, the race unfolded as a procession for the son of Gun Runner, who justified his favoritism and confirmed the solid preparation of his team. The race was run over 1 ⅛ miles on dirt with a purse of $1.25 million. The early fractions were relatively demanding — the colts Great White and Creole Chrome alternated on the lead posting splits of 23.60 and 47.71 seconds — while Talkin held third and Further Ado advanced in fourth, tracking the pace without expending energy. Around the far turn, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. moved his mount to the outside and the colt responded with a sharp acceleration; at the top of the stretch he was already clearly in command and in the final 200 meters he opened up by more than eight lengths, eventually winning by eleven lengths in a final time of 1:49.58, one of the fastest in the recent history of the race. The final order left Ottinho second nearly a dozen lengths back, Talkin third, Creole Chrome fourth, followed by Great White, Reagan’s Honor, and Moonstrocity. Further Ado (Gun Runner) wins the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland by 11 lengths. The victory allows Further Ado to enter the Kentucky Derby directly with 100 qualifying points and $1,146,328 in earnings. In the words of owner Eric Gustavson of Spendthrift, “we’re happy for Brad Cox and all our team; the horse loves Keeneland, he has shown it here and we believe he can compete against the best at Churchill Downs.” Brad Cox, who already had Commandment (winner of the Florida Derby) and Fulleffort (winner of the Jeff Ruby Stakes) qualified, was satisfied with his trainee’s performance and explained that previous plans included giving him two preps before the Derby: a race at Churchill Downs and then one at Keeneland, but the colt’s development allowed them to go straight into a G1. Cox emphasized that Further Ado shows an ideal balance between speed and the ability to relax, and that his steady rhythm is a key factor for handling the Derby’s ten furlongs. The trainer added that the Keeneland race proved the colt “can position himself, wait, and go when asked.” Irad Ortiz Jr., who handled the mount, described his strategy as follows: “I wanted to keep him close to the speed, but not too close. I always had a horse under me, relaxed, and when I asked him, he did everything; he’s light in his action and responds when he changes gears.” The effectiveness of that approach was evident as Further Ado went from tracking the leaders to turning for home with half a length advantage and opening a gap within seconds. Other professionals also offered their views: Flavien Prat, rider of Ottinho, believed his colt will improve with experience, while trainer Danny Gargan explained that Talkin took a big step forward and could be aimed at the Preakness Stakes. Joe Sharp, trainer of Creole Chrome, noted that his horse ended up on the lead because no one else wanted it and that the distance may have been too long. Further Ado’s victory gains additional relevance within the context of Spendthrift Farm seeking to return to the Derby after the loss of its top prospect Ted Noffey. The 2025 champion juvenile, also owned by Spendthrift, was removed from the Derby trail after being diagnosed with a bone bruise injury. Trainer Todd Pletcher commented that after a workout at Palm Beach Downs, Noffey “wasn’t moving like he usually does,” leading them to examine him. The diagnosis revealed he would need around 90 days of rest, with a potential return in early May. Noffey had won at Saratoga and then three Grade 1 races — the Hopeful Stakes, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — earning champion two-year-old honors. Ned Toffey, general manager of Spendthrift, stated that although the injury was a setback, the priority is the horse’s long-term health. With Noffey sidelined, Further Ado now assumes the role of the stable’s main standard-bearer. Brad Cox’s preparation for the Kentucky Derby has solidified as one of the strongest of the season. In addition to Further Ado, he trains Commandment, a son of Into Mischief who won the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park after rallying from last to defeat The Puma by a nose in 1:49.99. Cox described Commandment as a “big, strong horse” that manages his races well and said the victory placed him on the ideal Derby path. Flavien Prat, who rode him, explained that the early pace was slow but the colt responded when asked. Another Cox trainee, Fulleffort, captured the Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park with a powerful late run of 2 ½ lengths, clocking 1:49.94 for nine furlongs on Tapeta. His rider Irad Ortiz highlighted his strong finishing stride and ability to improve with each start. Cox thus brings three confirmed Derby runners and positions himself as one of the key players on the first Saturday in May. Joining this group is Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and also ridden by Irad Ortiz. The son of Into Mischief dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, rallying from last on the outside to win by four lengths in 1:49.70. Ortiz explained that he chose to relax him early and that once he settled, the horse “still had a lot left underneath.” Pletcher praised the rally and noted that the colt showed the ability to sustain his run through the finish. With these performances, Ortiz and his agent now face a complex decision regarding which mount he will choose for the Derby. Early odds suggest Renegade at 12-1, Commandment at 8-1, Further Ado at 15-1, and Fulleffort at 30-1; factors such as distance, running style, and affinity for Churchill Downs will influence the decision. Many analysts consider Renegade the most likely choice due to his display of speed and strong finish in Arkansas, but Further Ado’s dominant Blue Grass performance has opened the debate. The Blue Grass day was part of a golden Saturday for Gun Runner, whose progeny won graded races at multiple venues. At Aqueduct, the filly Always a Runner, bred by Phillips Racing Partnership and sold for $1.05 million at Keeneland, captured the Gazelle Stakes (G3). With Flavien Prat aboard, the Chad Brown trainee rallied along the inside to catch Pashmina 100 meters from the finish, winning by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:50.97. Brown explained that the filly had suffered pneumonia that delayed her debut and that he chose the Gazelle due to her ability to stretch her speed. The win placed her atop the Kentucky Oaks standings with 100 points. Hours later at Santa Anita Park, another daughter of Gun Runner, Meaning, won the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) by defeating stablemate Brooklyn Blonde in 1:43.99, earning 126 Oaks points according to the Kentucky Derby report. With these results and Further Ado’s commanding Keeneland victory, Gun Runner completed a notable treble, reinforcing his status as one of the most impactful sires today. Owned by Brazilian Gonçalo B. Torrealba of Three Chimneys Farm, Gun Runner was 2017 Horse of the Year and has become a leading sire with his early crops thanks to their versatility and toughness. After Paladin’s withdrawal from the Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner had been left without a representative in the race; however, he is now more than well represented by Further Ado. Further Ado’s success at Keeneland can also be understood through his prior record. On October 10, 2025, in his two-turn debut, the colt produced one of the most striking performances of the season by winning a maiden race at Keeneland by 20 lengths. With Irad Ortiz aboard, he sat behind the leader, advanced effortlessly, and crossed the wire in 1:43.52 for 1 1/16 miles. The performance earned him a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, the highest of the season for a two-year-old at that distance, and made him the 21st “TDN Rising Star” by Gun Runner. That performance justified the $550,000 Spendthrift had paid months earlier at the OBS two-year-olds in training sale. Bred in Kentucky by John C. Oxley, Further Ado is out of Sky Dreamer, a mare by Sky Mesa who won two races and finished second in the Arlington Oaks (G3). In addition to Further Ado, Sky Dreamer produced the multiple Group winner Kimbear, placed in G2 and G3 races in the UAE. The colt’s female family is particularly strong. His second dam, To Dream About, did not race but has distinguished herself as the dam of Dream Dancing, a Tapit filly who won four races including the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3). His third dam, Beautiful Pleasure, was champion older mare in the United States and won 10 races, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and the Beldame Stakes (G1). A sister to the stallion Mecke, Beautiful Pleasure also produced Dr. Pleasure, second in the Cowdin Stakes and third in the Travers Stakes. This combination of talent and genetic strength explains why Further Ado’s female family has produced winners on both turf and dirt, over distances ranging from a mile to ten furlongs. His success on dirt was predictable given the influence of Sky Mesa (by Pulpit) and Monarchos (winner of the 2001 Kentucky Derby), while the presence of Beautiful Pleasure adds stamina, clearly demonstrated at Keeneland. The analysis of Further Ado’s genetic and physical traits also provides insight into his commercial value. Gun Runner contributes class, speed, a muscular physique, and a powerful stride; his offspring typically show strong hindquarters and the ability to sustain high cruising speeds, as seen in the Blue Grass. Sky Dreamer contributes a more refined type and sensitivity at middle distances. The duplication of Mr. Prospector and A.P. Indy in his pedigree ensures a balance between speed and stamina. These qualities explain why Spendthrift invested over half a million dollars and why his current valuation exceeds double that amount after surpassing one million in earnings. His aptitude for dirt has been reinforced in both training and racing; according to Brad Cox, the colt trains efficiently and shows adaptability to different surfaces, although he has shown a preference for Keeneland. Further Ado’s campaign consists so far of six starts: he won his debut at Keeneland by 20 lengths, then ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) where he could not sustain the lead and finished third; after a winter break he returned in an allowance at Churchill Downs where he was second; then won an optional claiming race before targeting the Blue Grass. His record of three wins, one second, and one third reflects consistency and progressive improvement. With his Keeneland victory, he not only earned his first graded stakes win, but also gave Brad Cox his second Blue Grass (after Essential Quality in 2021) and reinforced Spendthrift Farm’s reputation for combining aggressive investment with sound genetic selection. Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, Further Ado could enter as one of the most physically imposing and promising colts. His running style — able to track the pace without overexertion and then finish strongly — is ideal for a Derby often shaped by demanding fractions. His pedigree suggests the mile and a quarter will not be an issue, and his experience at Keeneland, a track similar in configuration to Churchill Downs, gives him an advantage. Against him is the fact that, unlike Commandment or Renegade, he has not competed outside Kentucky against the highest level of competition; additionally, the Derby field will be larger and more tactically complex. Further Ado’s victory in the Blue Grass Stakes was not only a decisive step toward the Kentucky Derby, but also the culmination of a strategic plan combining strong investment, excellent preparation, and a solid genetic foundation. The absence of Ted Noffey left a void that the son of Gun Runner has now filled, giving Spendthrift a new classic hope. His victory, combined with those of Commandment and Fulleffort on other paths, highlights the strength of Brad Cox’s stable. Moreover, Gun Runner’s treble of graded wins at Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and Keeneland confirms that the 2017 champion continues to build a breeding dynasty. In the coming weeks, Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to make a crucial decision regarding which of his four mounts to ride in the Derby. While fans debate predictions, the data is clear: Further Ado has demonstrated ability, pedigree, and improvement potential that make him a serious contender for America’s most famous race. The victory allows Further Ado to enter the Kentucky Derby directly with 100 qualifying points and $1,146,328 in earnings. In the words of owner Eric Gustavson of Spendthrift, “we’re happy for Brad Cox and all our team; the horse loves Keeneland, he has shown it here and we believe he can compete against the best at Churchill Downs.” Brad Cox, who already had Commandment (winner of the Florida Derby) and Fulleffort (winner of the Jeff Ruby Stakes) qualified, was satisfied with his trainee’s performance and explained that previous plans included giving him two preps before the Derby: a race at Churchill Downs and then one at Keeneland, but the colt’s development allowed them to go straight into a G1. Cox emphasized that Further Ado shows an ideal balance between speed and the ability to relax, and that his steady rhythm is a key factor for handling the Derby’s ten furlongs. The trainer added that the Keeneland race proved the colt “can position himself, wait, and go when asked.” Irad Ortiz Jr., who handled the mount, described his strategy as follows: “I wanted to keep him close to the speed, but not too close. I always had a horse under me, relaxed, and when I asked him, he did everything; he’s light in his action and responds when he changes gears.” The effectiveness of that approach was evident as Further Ado went from tracking the leaders to turning for home with half a length advantage and opening a gap within seconds. Other professionals also offered their views: Flavien Prat, rider of Ottinho, believed his colt will improve with experience, while trainer Danny Gargan explained that Talkin took a big step forward and could be aimed at the Preakness Stakes. Joe Sharp, trainer of Creole Chrome, noted that his horse ended up on the lead because no one else wanted it and that the distance may have been too long. Further Ado’s victory gains additional relevance within the context of Spendthrift Farm seeking to return to the Derby after the loss of its top prospect Ted Noffey. The 2025 champion juvenile, also owned by Spendthrift, was removed from the Derby trail after being diagnosed with a bone bruise injury. Trainer Todd Pletcher commented that after a workout at Palm Beach Downs, Noffey “wasn’t moving like he usually does,” leading them to examine him. The diagnosis revealed he would need around 90 days of rest, with a potential return in early May. Noffey had won at Saratoga and then three Grade 1 races — the Hopeful Stakes, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — earning champion two-year-old honors. Ned Toffey, general manager of Spendthrift, stated that although the injury was a setback, the priority is the horse’s long-term health. With Noffey sidelined, Further Ado now assumes the role of the stable’s main standard-bearer. Brad Cox’s preparation for the Kentucky Derby has solidified as one of the strongest of the season. In addition to Further Ado, he trains Commandment, a son of Into Mischief who won the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park after rallying from last to defeat The Puma by a nose in 1:49.99. Cox described Commandment as a “big, strong horse” that manages his races well and said the victory placed him on the ideal Derby path. Flavien Prat, who rode him, explained that the early pace was slow but the colt responded when asked. Another Cox trainee, Fulleffort, captured the Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park with a powerful late run of 2 ½ lengths, clocking 1:49.94 for nine furlongs on Tapeta. His rider Irad Ortiz highlighted his strong finishing stride and ability to improve with each start. Cox thus brings three confirmed Derby runners and positions himself as one of the key players on the first Saturday in May. Joining this group is Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and also ridden by Irad Ortiz. The son of Into Mischief dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, rallying from last on the outside to win by four lengths in 1:49.70. Ortiz explained that he chose to relax him early and that once he settled, the horse “still had a lot left underneath.” Pletcher praised the rally and noted that the colt showed the ability to sustain his run through the finish. With these performances, Ortiz and his agent now face a complex decision regarding which mount he will choose for the Derby. Early odds suggest Renegade at 12-1, Commandment at 8-1, Further Ado at 15-1, and Fulleffort at 30-1; factors such as distance, running style, and affinity for Churchill Downs will influence the decision. Many analysts consider Renegade the most likely choice due to his display of speed and strong finish in Arkansas, but Further Ado’s dominant Blue Grass performance has opened the debate. The Blue Grass day was part of a golden Saturday for Gun Runner, whose progeny won graded races at multiple venues. At Aqueduct, the filly Always a Runner, bred by Phillips Racing Partnership and sold for $1.05 million at Keeneland, captured the Gazelle Stakes (G3). With Flavien Prat aboard, the Chad Brown trainee rallied along the inside to catch Pashmina 100 meters from the finish, winning by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:50.97. Brown explained that the filly had suffered pneumonia that delayed her debut and that he chose the Gazelle due to her ability to stretch her speed. The win placed her atop the Kentucky Oaks standings with 100 points. Hours later at Santa Anita Park, another daughter of Gun Runner, Meaning, won the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) by defeating stablemate Brooklyn Blonde in 1:43.99, earning 126 Oaks points according to the Kentucky Derby report. With these results and Further Ado’s commanding Keeneland victory, Gun Runner completed a notable treble, reinforcing his status as one of the most impactful sires today. Owned by Brazilian Gonçalo B. Torrealba of Three Chimneys Farm, Gun Runner was 2017 Horse of the Year and has become a leading sire with his early crops thanks to their versatility and toughness. After Paladin’s withdrawal from the Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner had been left without a representative in the race; however, he is now more than well represented by Further Ado. Further Ado’s success at Keeneland can also be understood through his prior record. On October 10, 2025, in his two-turn debut, the colt produced one of the most striking performances of the season by winning a maiden race at Keeneland by 20 lengths. With Irad Ortiz aboard, he sat behind the leader, advanced effortlessly, and crossed the wire in 1:43.52 for 1 1/16 miles. The performance earned him a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, the highest of the season for a two-year-old at that distance, and made him the 21st “TDN Rising Star” by Gun Runner. That performance justified the $550,000 Spendthrift had paid months earlier at the OBS two-year-olds in training sale. Bred in Kentucky by John C. Oxley, Further Ado is out of Sky Dreamer, a mare by Sky Mesa who won two races and finished second in the Arlington Oaks (G3). In addition to Further Ado, Sky Dreamer produced the multiple Group winner Kimbear, placed in G2 and G3 races in the UAE. The colt’s female family is particularly strong. His second dam, To Dream About, did not race but has distinguished herself as the dam of Dream Dancing, a Tapit filly who won four races including the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3). His third dam, Beautiful Pleasure, was champion older mare in the United States and won 10 races, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and the Beldame Stakes (G1). A sister to the stallion Mecke, Beautiful Pleasure also produced Dr. Pleasure, second in the Cowdin Stakes and third in the Travers Stakes. This combination of talent and genetic strength explains why Further Ado’s female family has produced winners on both turf and dirt, over distances ranging from a mile to ten furlongs. His success on dirt was predictable given the influence of Sky Mesa (by Pulpit) and Monarchos (winner of the 2001 Kentucky Derby), while the presence of Beautiful Pleasure adds stamina, clearly demonstrated at Keeneland. The analysis of Further Ado’s genetic and physical traits also provides insight into his commercial value. Gun Runner contributes class, speed, a muscular physique, and a powerful stride; his offspring typically show strong hindquarters and the ability to sustain high cruising speeds, as seen in the Blue Grass. Sky Dreamer contributes a more refined type and sensitivity at middle distances. The duplication of Mr. Prospector and A.P. Indy in his pedigree ensures a balance between speed and stamina. These qualities explain why Spendthrift invested over half a million dollars and why his current valuation exceeds double that amount after surpassing one million in earnings. His aptitude for dirt has been reinforced in both training and racing; according to Brad Cox, the colt trains efficiently and shows adaptability to different surfaces, although he has shown a preference for Keeneland. Further Ado’s campaign consists so far of six starts: he won his debut at Keeneland by 20 lengths, then ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) where he could not sustain the lead and finished third; after a winter break he returned in an allowance at Churchill Downs where he was second; then won an optional claiming race before targeting the Blue Grass. His record of three wins, one second, and one third reflects consistency and progressive improvement. With his Keeneland victory, he not only earned his first graded stakes win, but also gave Brad Cox his second Blue Grass (after Essential Quality in 2021) and reinforced Spendthrift Farm’s reputation for combining aggressive investment with sound genetic selection. Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, Further Ado could enter as one of the most physically imposing and promising colts. His running style — able to track the pace without overexertion and then finish strongly — is ideal for a Derby often shaped by demanding fractions. His pedigree suggests the mile and a quarter will not be an issue, and his experience at Keeneland, a track similar in configuration to Churchill Downs, gives him an advantage. Against him is the fact that, unlike Commandment or Renegade, he has not competed outside Kentucky against the highest level of competition; additionally, the Derby field will be larger and more tactically complex. Further Ado’s victory in the Blue Grass Stakes was not only a decisive step toward the Kentucky Derby, but also the culmination of a strategic plan combining strong investment, excellent preparation, and a solid genetic foundation. The absence of Ted Noffey left a void that the son of Gun Runner has now filled, giving Spendthrift a new classic hope. His victory, combined with those of Commandment and Fulleffort on other paths, highlights the strength of Brad Cox’s stable. Moreover, Gun Runner’s treble of graded wins at Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and Keeneland confirms that the 2017 champion continues to build a breeding dynasty. In the coming weeks, Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to make a crucial decision regarding which of his four mounts to ride in the Derby. While fans debate predictions, the data is clear: Further Ado has demonstrated ability, pedigree, and improvement potential that make him a serious contender for America’s most famous race.

The victory of Orange Riviera (Put It Back) in the Grande Premio Diana (G1), run on the afternoon of March 8 at Hipódromo da Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, represents one of the most significant episodes of the Brazilian classic calendar this season. The race, the second leg of the Rio filly Triple Crown, was run over 2,000 meters on turf and brought together several of the best representatives of the 2022 generation. In that context, Orange Riviera produced a spectacular late run to secure her first Group 1 victory and confirm the extraordinary sporting moment of the association between Haras Belmont, owned by Dante Franceschi, and the breaking and training system led by veterinarian Dr. Aline Vivan at Haras Santa Julieta. Orange Riviera (Put It Back) asserting herself in the Grande Premio Diana (G1), at Gávea. The development of the race was intense from the start. After the withdrawal of Olympic Puma in the alignment works, thirteen fillies were finally left in competition. From the break, Wendy Rose assumed the lead and set a demanding pace, opening several lengths over her pursuers while the field began to sort itself out. Meanwhile, young jockey João Victor opted for a strategy of complete patience with Orange Riviera. He kept her in the back positions, even around tenth place for much of the race, without allowing himself to be dragged along by the strong tempo imposed up front. This decision was key, because it allowed the filly to reach the stretch with reserves of energy when several of her rivals were beginning to feel the strain. On the big Flamengo turn, the picture began to change. Odalisca moved closer to the leader and took command, while Riva Mc placed herself in a stalking position. Veil, winner of the first leg of the Triple Crown and the public’s heavy favorite, was advancing on the outside trying to keep her title hopes alive. At that moment, Orange Riviera was still at the back of the field, but João Victor was beginning to look for openings between rivals. In the final 300 meters, the race opened up completely. Odalisca seemed to have the situation under control, but from the inside an unexpected figure emerged: Orange Riviera found a lane between the runners and launched a decisive acceleration. In the final 150 meters, the daughter of Put It Back produced a powerful late charge that left her rivals without an answer. She took the lead with great determination and held her advantage against the late attack of Oh Promise Me, who advanced to complete the exacta by approximately one length. Veil, who broke from the uncomfortable gate 14, completed third after a sustained effort throughout the stretch. Behind them finished Odalisca and Riva Mc, completing the board of a race that proved tactical and demanding. The final time of 1:58.99 for the 2,000 meters confirmed the quality of the race and the merit of the winner, who knew how to take advantage of a development ideal for her running style. With this performance, Orange Riviera reached her fourth victory in nine starts, consolidating a progressive campaign that already included wins in the Clásico Emerald Hill (Listed) at Cidade Jardim and the Clásico Criadores (Listed) at Tarumã. She had also been placed in group races before this victory, such as her third in the Grande Premio Henrique de Toledo Lara (G2) and her second in the Grande Premio Roger Guedon (G3) at Gávea. The win in the Diana not only represents the high point of her campaign so far, but also a confirmation that the filly had been regularly and competitively facing the best of her generation. Mauricio S. Oliveira, Dante Franceschi, Orange Riviera (Put It Back), João Victor and her groom on the podium. The ride by João Victor was one of the aspects most praised by the Brazilian specialized media. With only a few Group 1 victories in his career, the young rider showed notable maturity by not compromising his mount prematurely. The patience with which he waited for the right moment and the skill with which he found the decisive opening between rivals in the stretch reflected a ride of high class. In Brazil he is already considered one of the emerging jockeys with the greatest projection, and his victory aboard Orange Riviera reinforces that perception within the competitive world of Rio racing. Special recognition is also due to trainer Mauricio S. Oliveira, a professional based in Paraná who has built a solid reputation for the consistency of his results when shipping his horses to the country’s major racetracks. Oliveira not only prepared Orange Riviera for this victory, but also trains other important figures of the Belmont stable. His ability to keep his runners in optimal physical condition, even while traveling long distances between racing centers such as Cidade Jardim in São Paulo and Gávea in Rio de Janeiro, has become one of the keys to the team’s success. From a sporting standpoint, Orange Riviera’s victory also had an immediate consequence in the filly Triple Crown. Veil’s defeat in this second leg eliminated the possibility that Brazil would have a new filly Triple Crown winner from the 2022 generation. However, the fact that both protagonists belong to the same owner, Haras Belmont, maintains that stable’s dominance over the generation. In fact, Dante Franceschi’s stable had already achieved important victories in other classic races of the season, consolidating an extraordinary period for his program of selecting and acquiring fillies. Orange Riviera’s story also reflects an interesting business model within the South American racing industry. Born at the prestigious Haras Santa María de Araras, one of the most influential breeding farms on the continent, the filly was later acquired by Dante Franceschi and raised at Haras Santa Julieta, in Aceguá, Rio Grande do Sul. There, under the supervision of veterinarian Dr. Aline Vivan, a raising program is developed that combines rigorous sanitary management, specialized nutrition, and early physical preparation. This model has proven highly efficient, since in the 2022 generation it produced several Group 1 winners for the Belmont stable, among them Veil, Perfect Plastic, and now Orange Riviera. And on Sunday it not only added a G1 after winning the Diana, but Galikovic (Goldikovic), also raised at Haras Santa Julieta for Haras Belmont, won the Clásico Manuel Quintela (G3) at Maroñas, Uruguay, a qualifier for the Gran Premio Latinoamericano (G1), to be run at Monterrico next Sunday, April 26. The case of Orange Riviera illustrates how cooperation between breeders, veterinarians, owners, and trainers can transform a filly that initially remained unsold at auction into a Group 1 champion. In fact, during the auction organized by Belmont, the filly was offered as a pair with Olympic Polla (Outstrip). The buyer of the package decided to keep Olympic Polla, which allowed Orange Riviera to remain in Franceschi’s hands. Over time, that circumstance proved providential, as the filly ended up becoming one of the leading representatives of her generation. From a genetic standpoint, Orange Riviera has a highly attractive pedigree within the South American context. She is a daughter of Put It Back (Honour and Glory), one of the most influential stallions in modern Brazilian breeding. Put It Back, born in the United States and later established in Brazil, produced dozens of classic winners and multiple champions. His offspring are known for transmitting speed, precocity, and notable competitiveness on turf. Orange Riviera’s dam is Go To Riviera (Wild Event), which establishes the celebrated Put It Back x Wild Event cross, considered one of the most successful in the recent history of Haras Santa Maria de Araras. Wild Event, a son of American champion Wild Again, was leading sire in Brazil for several seasons and stood out for transmitting stamina and aptitude for middle and long distances. The combination of these two bloodlines has produced numerous classic winners in the country, which explains why many breeders consider this cross to be a particularly effective formula. In the deeper generations of the pedigree, there is also an interesting genetic influence related to the matriarch Gonfalon, whose presence is repeated in the paternal line of Honour and Glory and in the female family through Ogygian. This pattern generates a Rasmussen Factor, a type of genetic duplication that some analysts consider favorable when an influential mare is repeated within the first generations of the pedigree. In Orange Riviera’s case, this duplication reinforces the inheritance of speed and structural balance transmitted by that genetic family. On a morphological level, Brazilian specialists have also highlighted several physical aspects of the filly. Despite her relatively small size, she weighed 394 kilos yesterday, Orange Riviera presents an efficient athletic structure. She has short cannons, correct angles, and good depth of girth, characteristics that favor biomechanical efficiency for racing. Her overall conformation is harmonious, with a powerful croup and a compact back that allows her to generate quick acceleration over middle distances. These qualities partly explain the power of her closing run in the Diana. Proportion is always more important than the horse’s size. Orange Riviera’s victory not only consolidates her racing campaign, but also considerably increases her value as a future broodmare. A Group 1-winning mare with such an attractive pedigree automatically becomes a strategic asset for any breeding program. Her owners could choose to continue her classic campaign or, eventually, direct her toward a future breeding career, where her genetics could contribute to a new generation of top-level runners. Video of the Grande Premio Diana (G1). Orange Riviera’s victory in the Grande Premio Diana represents much more than a simple classic triumph. It is the synthesis of a well-planned breeding project, an effective business partnership, and professional work involving multiple areas of the turf industry. It also symbolizes the rise of new protagonists within Brazilian racing, from young jockeys like João Victor to trainers who develop their programs outside the great traditional centers. With her brilliant late charge at Gávea, Orange Riviera not only established herself as a Group 1 champion, but also reaffirmed the power of a generation that is already leaving an important mark on the recent history of South American racing.

Explora, a daughter of Blame out of the mare Collections Choice (by Bernardini), captured the Honeybee Stakes (G3) in convincing fashion at Oaklawn Park and established herself as one of the most promising three-year-old fillies in the United States. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, she showcased both her maturity and pedigree in one of the key races of the spring calendar. The victory not only positioned her as the veteran trainer’s leading prospect for the Kentucky Oaks, but also confirmed the strength of Baffert’s program despite the recent setback involving Plutarch, one of his previous Derby candidates. Explora (Blame) turned the tables on Super Corredora (Gun Runner) at Oaklawn Park, Arkansas. // Coady Media In the 2026 edition of the Honeybee, run over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, the bay filly owned by the “Three Amigos” partnership—Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman—settled close to pacesetter Knickleandime from the start. With solid fractions and a demanding tempo, the field moved down the backstretch in :47.70 for the half-mile. When the leader began to show signs of fatigue, Explora, patiently guided by Prat, seized command entering the final turn. The only serious threat came from Counting Stars, who attempted to surprise from the outside, but the daughter of Blame responded decisively and crossed the finish line three-quarters of a length in front, stopping the clock in 1:43.52. Sneaky Good finished third, confirming the overall quality of the field. The magnitude of the victory was reflected in the points awarded toward the Kentucky Oaks qualification system. The Honeybee Stakes distributed 105 points in total, with Explora earning 50, placing her just one step away from securing a starting berth on the first Friday in May. The next finishers received 25, 15, 10, and 5 points, underscoring the strategic importance of the race on the road to the Oaks. From Baffert’s barn, the win was celebrated with measured optimism. “She came into the race in the best shape we’ve seen her, and we needed to see her deliver an effort like that—and she did,” Bob Baffert said afterward. The Honeybee also demonstrated Explora’s tactical evolution. Once a somewhat nervous and speed-oriented filly early in her career, her race management now shows she has absorbed the guidance of both rider and training team. With Irad Ortiz Jr. unavailable, Flavien Prat, who has extensive experience riding for Baffert, used his familiarity with Oaklawn’s surface to keep the filly relaxed while applying just enough pressure on the leader. When Counting Stars loomed, Explora accelerated professionally. Prat commented after the race that the filly “responded instantly when she felt the rival and stayed determined all the way to the wire.” For breeders and owners, this competitive attitude often marks the difference between a promising runner and a future broodmare of international significance. Baffert’s remarks echoed that sentiment. The trainer stated that the filly looked physically better than ever and that the goal was “to see how she handled a race like this before thinking about Churchill Downs.” He added that the daughter of Blame had matured into “a very professional athlete,” a phrase that, coming from Baffert, signals confidence in her ability to handle longer distances. The “Three Amigos” ownership group also expressed their satisfaction. Mike Pegram noted that the $350,000 investment made at the 2025 Fasig-Tipton Two-Year-Old Sale now appeared fully justified. “We’re thinking about May, about Churchill Downs—this is very exciting,” he said. The cost and immediate reward illustrate the dynamics of the industry: investing in select fillies with the goal of securing both prize money and elite status in graded races. Historically, the Honeybee Stakes has served as a crucial stepping-stone toward the Kentucky Oaks, and Explora’s performance recalls recent editions where the winner later excelled at Churchill Downs, as happened with Sovereignty. With this victory, the daughter of Blame improved her record to 7 starts: 4 wins and 3 seconds, with earnings exceeding one million dollars. If she remains healthy and continues progressing, she could attempt the Honeybee–Kentucky Oaks double, a feat accomplished by very few fillies. Bob Baffert, who faced suspensions in several jurisdictions during 2021–22, now finds himself once again at the forefront of both the Derby and Oaks trails in 2026 thanks to his group of three-year-olds. In addition to Explora, his stable includes colts such as Class President (winner of the Rebel Stakes), Commandment (winner of the Fountain of Youth), and other prospects bred by WinStar Farm and SF Racing. The recent injury to Plutarch, another of his promising runners, has forced the trainer to carefully manage the remaining stable. Baffert expressed confidence in Explora’s suitability for the Oaks but cautioned that “everything will depend on how she comes out of her next races.” The international dimension of Baffert’s program is also evident. Specialized racing media reported that Greenwich Village, a son of Quality Road, received a formal invitation to compete in the Epsom Derby (G1). Owner Tom Ryan of SF Racing stated that when they originally purchased the colt, the plan was to target the Kentucky Derby, and that competing at Epsom would represent “a significant shift,” with the main question being the mile-and-a-half distance of the British classic. The participation of a U.S.-trained horse at Epsom would mark the first such attempt since 1993, reflecting Baffert’s ambition to compete at the international elite level. Within the three-year-old filly division, Explora’s main rival is Bella Ballerina, bred and owned by Godolphin and trained by Irishman Brendan Walsh. Bella Ballerina made headlines after winning the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs and boasts a pedigree combining Street Sense with a dam who is a sister to champion Pretty Mischievous. The Godolphin runner has shown a stronger pace profile than Explora, tilting the balance toward pure speed. A potential meeting between the two in the Kentucky Oaks could recreate a classic clash of styles: speed versus stamina. Walsh, known for maximizing the potential of his horses, has stated that his filly will arrive at the Oaks with a preparation focused on the decisive stretch run. “We know we’ll have to deal with Explora and several other excellent fillies,” the Irish trainer said, “but Bella Ballerina has shown she is a fighter in the stretch, and I trust her heart.” This rivalry, combined with speculation about Baffert’s potential Epsom campaign, adds intrigue to the upcoming classic season. Explora’s pedigree explains much of her ability. Her sire Blame (by Arch) was Horse of the Year in the United States after defeating Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and since retiring to stud at Claiborne Farm, he has transmitted quality to his offspring. Blame is known for passing along stamina and finishing power—traits Explora demonstrated at Oaklawn by sustaining a demanding pace and finishing strongly. Her dam Collections Choice is a daughter of Bernardini, winner of the Preakness Stakes and champion three-year-old. Bernardini has proven to be a highly influential stallion whose offspring combine precocity and class. His presence in Explora’s female line adds a dose of early speed and adaptability. Furthermore, Collections Choice descends from the family of Personal Ensign, the undefeated champion and matriarch of a lineage that has produced graded winners in both hemispheres. The combination of Arch–Seeking the Gold–A.P. Indy influences through Blame and Bernardini suggests a balance of speed and stamina highly valued by breeders. A deeper pedigree analysis shows that Explora carries a triple cross to Mr. Prospector—one through Blame, another through Bernardini, and a third in the fourth generation of her dam’s pedigree. This form of linebreeding to one of the dominant genetic influences of modern North American breeding aims to combine versatility with cardiovascular strength. For investors, a future broodmare with such a pedigree, reinforced by graded-stakes results, becomes a highly desirable asset. Explora passed through the sales ring as a yearling. She was consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where Donato Lanni, Baffert’s agent, identified her based on her conformation, movement, and pedigree. The “Three Amigos” did not hesitate, paying $500,000 to secure the daughter of Blame. This placed her in the upper-middle range of the sale, below the million-dollar prices sometimes commanded by the offspring of leading sires, yet still reflecting strong confidence in her potential. With this victory, the filly’s earnings have already surpassed $1,000,000. Her two-year-old season had already hinted at her ability: she debuted with a win at Del Mar, finished second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1), and later captured the Oak Leaf Stakes (G2). She closed the season with runner-up finishes in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Starlet Stakes (G1). This pattern—graded victory combined with strong placings at the highest level—is often one of the clearest indicators of classic potential. As a result, Baffert and her owners opted to give her a brief break and aim her toward her three-year-old campaign with the Honeybee and Kentucky Oaks as primary targets. Notably, this was also her first start outside California. Explora (Blame) in the Honeybee (G3) paddock. // Renee Torbit - Coady Media The racing community reacted quickly after the Honeybee. Columnists from specialized outlets highlighted how efficiently the filly controlled each stage of the race. Analysts from Thoroughbred Daily News emphasized that her record—4 wins and 3 seconds from 7 starts—is no coincidence and reflects steady progression. Her pattern of finishes (1-2-1-2 / 1-2-1) shows remarkable consistency, alternating almost exclusively between first and second place. Explora exhibits the powerful finishing kick typical of Blame’s offspring along with the competitive mindset inherited from her dam. Her physiological efficiency makes her one of the leading candidates for the Oaks and eventually for the breeding shed. Veterinarians and breeders consulted for this report agree that Explora’s skeletal structure, chest capacity, and tendon quality predispose her to demanding campaigns. For broodmare investors, durability combined with strong genetic lines is a key factor. One Kentucky breeder noted that her pedigree allows great flexibility in future matings, whether with Storm Cat-line stallions for speed or Sadler’s Wells-line stallions for stamina, creating significant commercial opportunities. After the Honeybee, Baffert indicated that Explora might contest one more prep race, either the Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn or the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), before heading to Churchill Downs. The trainer wants a fresh filly for the 1⅛-mile Kentucky Oaks distance while maintaining her development. “Every time we ride her she learns something new; the key will be balancing work with rest,” he explained. Beyond the Oaks, Explora’s campaign could extend to summer classics such as the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. If she continues performing at a high level, she might even aim for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, where three-year-old fillies face older mares. However, her owners have hinted that their primary objective is to win a Grade 1 race, with the Oaks being the ideal target, to maximize her value as a broodmare and secure her future at a prestigious stud farm. Explora now stands as one of the most complete fillies of the 2023 generation. Her decisive victory in the Honeybee, combining tactical intelligence with physical strength, propels her toward the Kentucky Oaks and significantly increases her value in a market eager for new elite broodmares. With a pedigree blending Blame and Bernardini, a justified auction price, the guidance of Bob Baffert, and the backing of experienced owners, her immediate future looks extremely promising. The rivalry with Bella Ballerina adds excitement to the Oaks trail, while Baffert’s international ambitions—illustrated by Greenwich Village and the Epsom Derby invitation—show that his operation extends far beyond American borders. For breeders, investors, and fans, Explora’s campaign offers a compelling example of strategic planning and genetic value creation. Her performances in the coming weeks will determine whether the industry witnesses the rise of a future matriarch or simply an outstanding classic runner, but one thing is certain: the filly has already etched her name into the collective memory of the turf thanks to her brave victory at Oaklawn Park.

The racing career of the American chestnut Disarm, now retired to stud, illustrates the level of quality that both Haras Vacación and Haras Santa Inés aim to inject into their breeding programs. A son of the champion Gun Runner and out of a mare by the influential Tapit, Disarm was campaigned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and gained prominence when he qualified for the Kentucky Derby at three, after finishing second to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and third in the Lexington Stakes (G3). In the Churchill Downs classic he finished fourth behind Mage, and later secured his biggest victory in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3). From ages two through five he maintained a high level of performance: prior to his move south he finished second in both the Travers Stakes (G1) and the Lukas Classic (G2) and amassed nearly $1.7 million in earnings. His durability and sustained competitiveness appeal strongly to Argentine breeders, who seek horses capable of transmitting toughness and the will to compete. Disarm (Gun Runner) winning an allowance at Churchill Downs. His genetics explain much of that class. Gun Runner, by the outstanding Candy Ride, is the product of a cross between the Argentine sire and a granddaughter of Storm Cat, a combination that has proven particularly successful: Gun Runner’s early crops produced graded winners such as Gunite and Echo Zulu, both carrying duplications of Storm Cat at 3×3 or 4×4 in their pedigrees. Analysts at Thoroughbred Daily News have noted that breeders deliberately repeat this nick between the Fappiano branch of Candy Ride and Storm Cat, as it offers an optimal balance between speed and stamina. Other Gun Runner offspring such as Pappacap and Wicked Halo are also out of Storm Cat-line mares, reinforcing the importance of that combination. This genetic framework is complemented by Disarm’s maternal background. His dam Easy Tap belongs to the family of Tap Your Heels (the dam of Tapit) and contributes blood from A.P. Indy and Fappiano, meaning the new stallion carries well-positioned duplications of Fappiano and Storm Cat. This convergence of bloodlines has proven effective in the United States on both dirt and turf, and explains why Disarm is expected to transmit versatility, with an inclination toward the mile and the classic middle distances. The agreement between Vacación and Santa Inés is both strategic and symbolic. Two of Argentina’s leading breeders joined forces to acquire Disarm’s breeding rights and present him as a joint investment. Pablo Zavaleta, of Vacación, and Alessandro Misserocchi, of Santa Inés, decided to import him after evaluating his racing campaign and pedigree, convinced that he complements their current stallion rosters (Fortify, Roman Ruler, Hi Happy, Cityscape, and Satono Flag). Disarm will cover his first mares in 2026 and will stand at Haras Vacación, although Santa Inés will also have access to seasons and mares to support him. For breeders, the alliance between two traditionally competitive farms in an investment of this magnitude signals confidence in the horse’s commercial potential and opens the door to cross-breeding opportunities between both broodmare bands. To understand how Disarm may fit within the Argentine broodmare population, it is necessary to analyze the predominant families in each farm. Vacación possesses a strong nucleus of mares by Roman Ruler and Fortify, both grandsons of Mr. Prospector through the Fappiano line. Roman Ruler also carries blood from Forty Niner and Deputy Minister, while Fortify is a son of Distorted Humor. Mating these mares with Disarm would duplicate Fappiano at 3×3 or 4×4, reinforcing the speed and versatility component; this type of duplication has shown positive results in the United States, where several runners by Gun Runner are out of mares by Distorted Humor or Mr. Prospector-line stallions. However, excessive inbreeding to Fappiano must be monitored. Mares heavily concentrated in that line—Roman Ruler over Fortify, for example—might require an outcross to avoid tight duplications such as 2×2. Another important subline within Vacación is Hurricane Cat, a son of Storm Cat. When Hurricane Cat mares are bred to Disarm, the successful Candy Ride/Storm Cat formula would be replicated at 4×3 or 4×4, similar to the pattern that produced champions like Gunite. This nick appears particularly attractive because it reinforces speed and competitive instinct. Gun Runner statistics show a higher stakes-winner ratio when his runners are produced from mares descending from Storm Cat or Giant’s Causeway. Therefore, daughters of Hurricane Cat are expected to match especially well with Disarm. Mares by Cityscape (Breeders’ Cup Mile winner) or Hi Happy (a G1 turf winner) will contribute turf lines and stamina, so crossing them with Disarm should produce versatile offspring, likely inclined toward dirt through Gun Runner but capable of performing on turf due to their maternal influence. Haras Santa Inés, by contrast, maintains a more diverse broodmare band, including daughters of Catcher In The Rye (Danehill), Il Campione (Scat Daddy), Southern Halo, Orpen (Lure), Fortify, and Exchange Rate (Danzig). The Danehill line (Catcher In The Rye) provides speed and precocity through Danzig. When combined with Candy Ride, the result is a blend of Northern Dancer (via Danzig) and Fappiano, a cross that has produced effective sprinters and milers in South America. Consequently, Disarm could work well with mares by Catcher In The Rye or Exchange Rate, producing quick horses with strong mile potential. The Scat Daddy line (through Il Campione) blends Mr. Prospector with Storm Cat. When mated with Disarm, the result would duplicate Storm Cat at 4×4 or 4×5 and Mr. Prospector at 4×4, a structure similar to that seen in champions such as Echo Zulu. This should be favorable, although breeders should avoid mares already saturated with Storm Cat blood on both sides. With daughters of Southern Halo, the cross would duplicate Halo, a pattern that has produced outstanding results with Candy Ride in Argentina. Finally, mares by Orpen (Lure) and Exchange Rate (Danzig) provide outcross opportunities to Storm Cat and Fappiano, introducing Northern Dancer blood without excessive duplication of the same ancestors. Disarm appears particularly well suited to mares from the Storm Cat line, as well as those descending from Danzig, Distorted Humor, and Southern Halo, while heavy duplication of Mr. Prospector or Fappiano in close generations should be approached with caution. Físico actual de Disarm en Nueva York antes de cumplir su primera temporada como reproductor. Beyond genetics, Disarm’s success as a stallion will depend on his ability to transmit both speed and classic aptitude. Gun Runner has sired both sprinters and stayers, though many of his best offspring excel between one mile and one mile and a quarter. Accordingly, Disarm is likely to produce horses suited to intermediate distances, with the potential to stretch to 2000 meters. His dam Easy Tap contributes stamina and structural soundness, suggesting his offspring may develop with maturity and improve at three years of age. Dirt aptitude dominates his pedigree, but Candy Ride has sired numerous turf winners, and Tapit progeny frequently adapt to both surfaces. It would not be surprising if some of Disarm’s offspring excel on turf, particularly when crossed with mares carrying grass-oriented bloodlines. The stallion’s commercial appeal lies in his modern pedigree and consistent racing campaign. In Argentina, the Candy Ride line is highly valued, but until now the market has primarily experimented with direct sons of Candy Ride or with lesser representatives of the Fappiano branch. Disarm introduces a new representative of the line, supported by a proven racing record in the United States and a powerful Storm Cat/Tapit genetic foundation, making him unique within the local stallion population. The Vacación–Santa Inés alliance will allow his progeny to enjoy significant exposure at sales and selection races, while the combined clientele of both farms will reduce internal competition and ensure a larger pool of quality mares. Professionals who observed Disarm in the United States have highlighted both his temperament and physical presence. After his final campaign, Steve Asmussen noted that Disarm was “a horse that always tries and has remained sound and competitive,” while racing analysts emphasized that his fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and runner-up effort in the Travers Stakes demonstrated his class. When announcing his arrival, South American media described him as “a horse with an imposing physique and a thoroughly modern pedigree,” emphasizing that his dam is a sister to Tapit and belongs to an exceptional female family. This combination of professional opinion and objective data gives investors confidence in a stallion capable of raising local breeding standards. Ultimately, the addition of Disarm to the Haras Vacación roster, in partnership with Haras Santa Inés, represents a strategic step forward for Argentine breeding. His solid performances at the highest level, proven pedigree, and genetic compatibility with local broodmares make him an appealing prospect for breeders and investors alike. The key will be careful selection of broodmare lines. Recent history suggests that daughters of Storm Cat, Distorted Humor, Southern Halo, and Danzig can enhance the Candy Ride/Storm Cat nick that has produced so many champions. If managed thoughtfully, the Vacación–Santa Inés alliance may enable this grandson of Candy Ride to leave a lasting mark on Southern Hemisphere Thoroughbred breeding.

The Fountain of Youth Stakes, contested this year under a brilliant sun at Gulfstream Park, not only fulfilled its traditional role as a key prep race for the Kentucky Derby; it also revealed a new protagonist on the road to Churchill Downs. His name is Commandment, a son of the influential stallion Into Mischief who carried the weight of high expectations and delivered a standout performance. The race, recognized for awarding crucial qualifying points for the Derby, has over the years served as the launching pad for horses that later wrote their names into history. In 2013, for example, Orb won it before capturing the Kentucky Derby; in 2025, Sovereignty replicated that feat, establishing a precedent that Commandment now aspires to follow. Commandment (Into Mischief) defeated Chief Wallabee (Constitution) on the dirt at Gulfstream. Commandment’s victory was marked by a display of class and maturity. Under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the most accomplished riders in the North American circuit, the colt showed tactical intelligence: he secured an ideal position from the start, avoiding unnecessary battles while conserving energy for the stretch. When the race intensified entering the far turn, Commandment was ready and, with a progressive burst of acceleration, took command of the race and held off his rivals with authority. The confident expression on Ortiz’s face after crossing the wire and the way the colt sustained his powerful stride confirmed that he is a horse with remarkable potential. His trainer, Brad Cox, celebrated with a restrained but telling smile; he knows that his colt is on the right path toward the first Saturday in May. The connection of this victory with the international structure of the racing industry is particularly interesting. Commandment races for Wathnan Racing, the operation of the Emir of Qatar, which in recent years has increased its presence in the United States, Europe, and Asia through bold and well-calculated investments. Wathnan Racing’s management has chosen to collaborate with top-level trainers, and in this case entrusted the colt to Brad Cox, one of the most successful horsemen of the last decade, with multiple victories in Triple Crown races, Breeders’ Cup events, and other elite competitions. The relationship between the Emir and Cox has already produced notable horses, and Commandment now emerges as the potential standard-bearer for the Qatari colors in the Kentucky Derby. Ortiz, for his part, understands what it means to ride horses with classic potential; his composure and determination in the saddle add value to the colt’s future preparation. Commandment’s campaign so far has been carefully managed. Introduced late to the racetrack, he debuted in the second half of his two-year-old season, securing a promising victory in a maiden race where he impressed with a sustained finishing run. His next appearance was in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream, where he finished first after encountering a difficult trip. Cox noted that the colt required more space to fully develop his stride and decided to target the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, a track where the long stretch allows greater opportunities for closing runs. The strategy paid off. In preparation for the Fountain of Youth, the team focused on developing the colt’s patience and reaction speed. Industry analysts observing his morning workouts noted that the son of Into Mischief displayed remarkable progress in both mentality and responsiveness. Some described him as “professional,” a term reserved for horses that understand their task at an early age. Racing writers such as Jay Privman, along with commentators on specialized programs, pointed out that although Commandment still needed to solidify his stretch effort, he possessed the strength and instinct necessary to compete against top-level rivals. The main question revolved around his ability to respond to the demanding pace typical of the Fountain of Youth, where speed horses often exert pressure from the start. On race day, the team’s plan was to avoid having Commandment trapped along the rail, allowing him to find clear running room when it was time to accelerate. Breaking from a middle gate, he settled comfortably in third position while a rival established the early pace. As the field approached the final turn, Ortiz gave his mount a gentle cue, and Commandment responded with power, pressing forward against his opponents. The victory, achieved by more than two lengths, was aesthetically impressive and tactically flawless. The fractional times showed that he maintained a strong rhythm, completing the mile and a sixteenth in a competitive time. The outcome not only elevated him to favorite status in early Derby wagering but also confirmed that he is capable of further improvement. An analysis of his pedigree explains part of his talent. Commandment is by Into Mischief, one of the most dominant stallions in modern breeding. Into Mischief has earned a reputation for transmitting speed and toughness, traits displayed by champions such as Authentic (winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic), Mandaloun, Practical Joke, and Life Is Good. His offspring often possess great adaptability and precocity, allowing them to compete effectively at a young age. Commandment appears to embody these qualities: he has early speed, a notable turn of foot, and a balanced temperament. His dam, who won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga as a two-year-old, contributes an element of pure speed and determination. Being a Grade 1 winner in a prestigious event such as the Spinaway indicates precocious talent and resilience, traits that are often inherited. Commandment’s maternal grandsire is Orb, a son of Malibu Moon who captured the 2013 Kentucky Derby after first winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Orb, known for his ability to close strongly and adapt to different track conditions, is now a stallion at Haras Cuatro Piedras in Progreso, Canelones, Uruguay. His relocation to South America resulted from a joint investment by regional breeders and a negotiation led by Sebastián Angelillo. Orb’s presence in Commandment’s pedigree adds an element of stamina and versatility to a lineage dominated by the speed of Into Mischief. Many experts believe that combining a stallion with a sprinter/miler profile with a mare possessing stamina influences can produce balanced racehorses. In Commandment’s case, his compact build and powerful hindquarters suggest the ability to sustain a long finishing run. His genetics indicate that he could handle distances of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) or even 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs) with maturity—an essential trait for the Kentucky Derby. Industry professionals largely responded positively after the Fountain of Youth. Brad Cox highlighted the colt’s maturity: “He’s a horse that learns quickly. We’ve asked something new from him in each race, and he responds with intelligence and willingness. I see him improving every day,” he said in a televised interview. Ortiz added that Commandment runs with confidence: “When I asked him, he responded immediately. You can feel that he wants to run, that he knows when to push. I get the sense there’s even more to come.” Racing journalists, always attentive to future betting markets, noted that sportsbooks drastically shortened his odds for the Derby, placing him among the favorites. Some analysts emphasized the quality of the field he defeated; others argued that he still needs to confirm his superiority in another prep race. Nevertheless, the overall consensus is that Commandment possesses strong credentials. According to Cox, the campaign plan toward the Derby could include one final prep in April. Traditionally, most Derby contenders choose among the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, or Arkansas Derby. Each race offers conditions suited to different types of horses. The Florida Derby, run over the same track as the Fountain of Youth, would allow him to remain in familiar surroundings but would likely present a similar field. The Louisiana Derby offers a slightly longer distance of 1 3/16 miles, allowing a test of stamina. The Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby are run over deeper dirt tracks and bring together rivals from other circuits. Cox has shown a preference for the Louisiana Derby in recent years, as his horses adapt well to Fair Grounds, although he also won the Blue Grass with Essential Quality. The final decision will depend on the colt’s development and the conditions that arise. The key is to avoid overtaxing him and to arrive at Churchill Downs with energy. Speaking of the trainer’s influence, Brad Cox has revolutionized the preparation of three-year-old horses. From his breakthrough with Monomoy Girl and Covfefe to his championship successes with Essential Quality and Mandaloun, he has established himself as a benchmark of consistency. His methods combine science and craftsmanship: he uses technology to monitor heart rate and physical response during training while also relying on intuition built through years of experience. Cox understands that every horse is an individual and adapts his training program accordingly. With Commandment, he has emphasized the colt’s versatility across different tracks and his ability to recover quickly after races. This management has been crucial in ensuring that the colt reaches peak condition for each start. Beyond the athletic dimension, Commandment’s story also contains interesting economic aspects. He was purchased for $500,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency. The agency, renowned for presenting elite prospects, showcased him in a way that highlighted his pedigree and athletic movement. Wathnan Racing’s buyers, aware of Into Mischief’s genetic dominance, competed aggressively for the colt despite knowing he would not come cheaply. The price, though substantial, was justified by his conformation, temperament, and pedigree. In a market where Into Mischief yearlings often exceed one million dollars, the amount paid reflects a balance between expectation and potential. Following his Fountain of Youth victory, that investment has already appreciated significantly, and his future as a stallion looks promising, as a strong Derby performance would dramatically increase his breeding value. Returning to the Fountain of Youth, it is important to understand why this race is such a critical benchmark. It forms part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series, awarding 50 points to the winner, 25 to the runner-up, 15 to the third-place finisher, 10 to the fourth, and 5 to the fifth. This means that the winner virtually guarantees qualification for the Derby. It is also the first Grade 2 prep race on the East Coast to test three-year-olds over an intermediate distance. Many Fountain of Youth winners have gone on to leave their mark in the Triple Crown or other major races. Orb in 2013 went from promising colt to Derby hero. Other examples such as Honour and Glory (1996), Eskendereya (2010), and Gunnevera (2017) confirmed its importance as a measuring stick. For Commandment, winning here proves he can adapt to a strong pace and maintain his performance, essential attributes for the Derby. The presence of the Emir of Qatar through Wathnan Racing adds an international dimension. The Emir’s colors have already appeared prominently in European racing with horses such as Eldar Eldarov and Courage Mon Ami, and now attention turns to the most iconic race in the United States. Success in the Fountain of Youth demonstrates the operation’s versatility and its commitment to investing in horses capable of competing globally. Finally, Commandment’s victory rekindles excitement about the importance of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. The road to the Kentucky Derby is a path of elimination and coronation. Each stage filters out the best, and the Fountain of Youth often separates limited speed horses from truly complete competitors. With this victory, Commandment has shown that he possesses the tools to advance. Narratively, he embodies the dream of an ambitious owner, the vision of an experienced trainer, and the skill of an elite jockey, supported by proven genetics and a purchase price that, if his progress continues, may eventually seem like a bargain. The racing industry, always eager for new heroes, will closely follow his development as the countdown to the Kentucky Derby 2026 continues.

The road to the Kentucky Derby gained a new major contender following the thrilling victory of Class President, a son of Uncle Mo trained by Todd Pletcher, in the Rebel Stakes (G2) contested at Oaklawn Park. Defending the colors of WinStar Farm, the colt prevailed in an exciting finish and immediately placed himself among the leading prospects on the road to the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race for three-year-olds in the United States. Class President (Uncle Mo) battled with Silent Tactic (Tacitus) in the Rebel Stakes (G2). The Rebel Stakes, run over 1 1/16 miles with a purse of one million dollars, has historically been one of the most influential races on the Derby prep calendar. Over the years it has served as a launching pad for champions such as American Pharoah, Curlin, and Lookin At Lucky, making any victory at Oaklawn Park a signal of genuine classic potential. In this edition, Class President proved he belongs in that select group by delivering a performance full of determination and character. Breaking from the inside post, the Todd Pletcher trainee quickly positioned himself just behind the pacesetter Litmus Test, patiently tracking the tempo through much of the race. Under the guidance of veteran rider John Velazquez, the colt advanced decisively upon entering the stretch and took the lead at the beginning of the decisive run. However, the victory would not come easily. Southwest Stakes winner Silent Tactic launched a strong rally on the outside, and the two colts staged an intense duel in the final yards. In the end, Class President held on by a nose at the wire, completing the distance in 1:43.21 and displaying a blend of speed, stamina, and courage that often distinguishes true classic horses. The victory earned him 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby standings, a total that virtually guarantees him a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Class President’s campaign has been brief but extremely promising. The colt debuted on December 27 at Gulfstream Park, where he won convincingly by more than three lengths, a performance that immediately caught the attention of his connections. He was then entered in the Swale Stakes, where he finished second while earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, a competitive number for a developing three-year-old. The Rebel Stakes marked both his first stakes victory and his first graded triumph, elevating his record to three starts with two wins and one second-place finish, along with earnings approaching six hundred thousand dollars. The victory also reinforces the strength of the partnership between Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm, one of the most influential alliances in modern American racing. Pletcher, a Hall of Fame trainer, has won the Kentucky Derby twice, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. WinStar Farm, owned by Kenny Troutt, has been a major force over the past decades both on the racetrack and in the breeding shed, producing or owning horses such as Super Saver, Justify — winner of the 2018 Triple Crown — Audible, and Life Is Good. The fact that Class President was bred by WinStar itself adds even greater value to the project, as the colt represents a direct product of one of Kentucky’s most important breeding operations. From a genetic standpoint, Class President possesses an extremely attractive pedigree. He is a son of the influential stallion Uncle Mo, one of the most important sires of the past decade and responsible for champions such as Nyquist, winner of the Kentucky Derby, Mo Donegal, winner of the Belmont Stakes, and champion sprinter Golden Pal. With Class President’s victory, Uncle Mo continues to expand his impressive record of graded stakes winners, consolidating his status as one of the pillars of modern breeding. On the dam’s side, Class President is out of the mare Top Quality, a stakes winner and graded-stakes placed performer who was purchased by WinStar Farm at Keeneland for $335,000. The female family also includes American Speed, a son of More Than Ready and a stakes-winning, graded-placed runner, as well as stakes winner Keepsake. Top Quality continues to produce valuable offspring, having recently delivered a filly by Justify and another by Nyquist, demonstrating that the family remains highly regarded within the farm’s breeding program. Beyond his genetics, what most excites analysts is Class President’s racing style. He is neither a pure front-runner nor a deep closer, but rather a tactical horse capable of settling near the pace and responding when the race enters its decisive phase. This type of profile often adapts particularly well to the complexities of the Kentucky Derby, a race with twenty runners where positioning ability and mental toughness are just as important as speed. After earning 50 points toward the Derby standings, Class President now ranks among the leaders of his generation. Possible next stops include the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park or the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, although it is also possible that his team could take a more conservative route and bring him directly to Churchill Downs with only one additional prep race. Todd Pletcher is known for carefully managing his classic prospects, so the planning of the coming weeks will be crucial in the colt’s development. Victory in the Rebel Stakes does not guarantee success in the Kentucky Derby, but it does place Class President in a privileged position within the three-year-old landscape. With an elite pedigree, powerful connections, and a competitive style that combines speed and determination, the son of Uncle Mo appears to possess many of the qualities sought in a classic contender. As the countdown to Churchill Downs continues, the colors of WinStar Farm once again begin to dream of capturing the most important race in American racing, this time with a colt who has already demonstrated a fundamental trait for the sport’s biggest stages: the ability to fight all the way to the wire.

The afternoon of Sunday, February 1, at the Gávea Racecourse will be remembered as one of those moments that transcend sport itself and become part of the collective memory of international racing. In Rio de Janeiro, under the Brazilian sun and in front of an expectant crowd, Frankie Dettori won the final race of his career as a professional jockey, and he did so in the most meaningful way possible: by capturing a Group 1, the Grande Prêmio Estado do Rio de Janeiro, the opening leg of the Brazilian Triple Crown and the country’s equivalent of the 2,000 Guineas. It was not a symbolic farewell nor a romantic gift of fate; it was a genuine, demanding victory in a race that requires class, composure, and a flawless tactical reading. Bet You Can (Can The Man) dominates the 2022 generation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. // João Cotta The Grande Prêmio Estado do Rio de Janeiro (G1) is a race reserved exclusively for three-year-old colts, contested over one mile on turf, and it represents one of the first major tests of the generation. Traditionally, it draws large fields, strong early tempos, and a competitive level that forces participants to perform at their peak early in the season. In this context, Bet You Can responded with authority, displaying a blend of tactical maturity and competitive ability that set him apart from the rest. With Dettori in the saddle, the colt positioned himself efficiently without expending unnecessary energy, advanced when the race dynamics allowed, and resolved decisively in the final stages, holding off his challengers and crossing the wire with a clear, if not overwhelming, advantage. The significance of the victory is magnified by the fact that it was the final one of an unparalleled career. Frankie Dettori needs no introduction: winner of more than 500 Group races, multiple champion across Europe, the United States, and the Middle East, protagonist of legendary afternoons such as his historic “Magnificent Seven” at Ascot, and a central figure in global racing for more than three decades. His ability to read races, adapt to different horses, and deliver under pressure made him an icon beyond statistics and trophies. That his final victory came in Brazil, in his first and only professional appearance in the country, adds an unexpected and deeply symbolic dimension. Dettori now steps away from professional riding to begin a new chapter as an international ambassador for AMO Racing, one of the most dynamic and ambitious operations in global racing today. His role going forward will be tied to the promotion of the sport, institutional representation, and advisory work, channeling his experience and charisma into a different but equally influential position. He closed his riding career, however, exactly as he lived it: winning, in a Group 1, aboard a young horse, in a demanding race, and before a crowd that fully grasped the magnitude of the moment. The equine protagonist of this story, Bet You Can, was no secondary figure in the tribute, but rather a legitimate winner on pure merit. Bred and owned by Haras Estrela Nova, one of Brazil’s most progressive breeding operations, the colt represents a modern breeding model built on solid foundations and clear long-term vision. All horses from the operation are raised at Haras Fronteira in Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul, a region historically associated with the quality of the Brazilian Thoroughbred, where breeding is understood as a comprehensive process that goes far beyond pedigree alone. The victory in the Grande Prêmio Estado do Rio de Janeiro marked Bet You Can’s first Group 1 success, achieved in a race of maximum difficulty for his age and stage of development. It was not a tailor-made scenario nor the product of favorable circumstances; it was a direct confrontation with the best of his generation, resolved with poise and efficiency. That triumph immediately places him among the most relevant colts of the year and validates the work of everyone involved, from breeding through to race management. From a genetic standpoint, Bet You Can is a son of Can The Man, a stallion who has found fertile ground in Brazil to express his potential. Can The Man, a direct son of Into Mischief, was an elite racehorse and a Group 1 winner, and his relocation to Brazil generated significant expectations. His progeny has shown a fairly consistent pattern: he transmits speed, precocity, and competitiveness up to one mile, producing effective and reliable runners over intermediate distances. He is not, generally speaking, a natural source of extended stamina, but he does impart functional quality and responsiveness in demanding race scenarios. Bet You Can’s dam, Bar Rouge, is a daughter of Pounced and had already demonstrated her value as a broodmare. Prior to Bet You Can, she produced Barzana, a daughter of Verrazano (More Than Ready), bred by Haras Legacy, also trained by Luiz Esteves, and a Group 3 winner in Brazil, clearly excelling in sprint and speed-oriented races. This detail is fundamental to understanding the colt’s true profile: his female line is not geared toward classic stamina, but rather toward efficiency over short to intermediate distances. Bet You Can, therefore, is not a genetic anomaly, but a coherent expression of his pedigree. In that sense, his victory over the mile at Gávea becomes even more valuable. He performed at the upper limit of his optimal range, maximizing his resources without compromising his physical structure. This naturally raises an intriguing question regarding his immediate future. Racing logic suggests he will attempt the second leg of the Carioca Triple Crown over 2,000 meters. Strategically, it is a natural step after winning the 2,000 Guineas; genetically, it represents a significant challenge. Those additional 400 meters constitute a major leap, not only physically, but also in terms of energy distribution and mental resilience. Should Bet You Can manage to adapt to that distance, his status would rise considerably. If, on the other hand, stamina proves to be a clear limitation, an alternative path is already well defined. Returning to the mile, where he has already proven competitive at the highest level, and targeting the Grande Prêmio Presidente da República during the Grande Prêmio Brasil meeting on June 14, 2026, at Gávea, emerges as a logical and sporting option. That race, one of the most prestigious mile events on the Brazilian calendar, could become the ideal stage for him to consolidate his position as one of the best specialists of his generation. The impact of Can The Man during the classic meeting was not limited to Bet You Can. Earlier that same afternoon, the Brazilian 1,000 Guineas, the Grande Prêmio Henrique Possolo (G1), were contested, with victory going to Veil, a filly also by Can The Man, bred at Haras Santa Julieta by veterinarian Dr. Aline Vivian. Veil confirmed that the stallion is capable of producing Group 1 winners in both colts and fillies, reinforcing his standing within the Brazilian breeding landscape. Second in that race was Like It Hot, a filly bred by Haras Estrela Nova and sired by the national stallion Arrocha (Pounced), another proven name within the local breeding program. This dual prominence, Bet You Can in the 2,000 Guineas and Veil in the 1,000 Guineas, places Can The Man (Into Mischief) at the very center of the Brazilian classic scene and confirms that his arrival in the country was not a mere experiment, but a breeding investment with tangible results. At the same time, it underscores the strong momentum of operations such as Estrela Nova and Santa Julieta, which are successfully translating planning, selection, and management into top-level outcomes. Frankie Dettori overcome with emotion after winning aboard Bet You Can. // João Cotta Frankie Dettori’s final victory, therefore, was not an isolated episode, but rather the point of convergence of multiple narratives: the farewell of a legend, the consolidation of a breeding project, the validation of an imported stallion, and the emergence of a competitive generation within Brazilian racing. Bet You Can proved to be the perfect vehicle for that conclusion: a young colt with proven talent, a clear genetic profile, and an open future. Time will ultimately determine how far he can go. If he adapts to 2,000 meters, he will enter a higher dimension altogether. If not, his quality over a mile ensures continued prominence in the sport’s biggest events. What can never be taken away is that he was the final Group 1 winner ridden by Frankie Dettori, a distinction that forever secures his place in the history of world racing.

Nearly, a colt by the prolific sire Not This Time, burst onto the North American three-year-old scene with a decisive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His win, achieved after a tactically patient trip and a powerful finishing kick, confirmed the talent his connections had been seeing in the mornings and placed him among the leaders on the road to the Kentucky Derby. This article aims to analyze in depth the rise of the Centennial Farms runner, recovering testimony from his connections, reconstructing his brief but effective campaign, breaking down his pedigree and the strength of his female family, and projecting his chances heading toward the Run for the Roses. Nearly (Not This Time) remains undefeated in the track of Gulfstream Park. On January 25, 2026, racing attention focused on Gulfstream Park, where ten three-year-old colts contested the Holy Bull Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile (1,700 meters) race awarding qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. Nearly went off as the second choice in the wagering, tracking pacesetter Cannoneer through the early stages. The opening quarter in 23.81 seconds and the half-mile in 45.96 reflected a selective pace. Rounding the far turn, jockey John Velazquez asked the dark bay for more; the response was immediate, sweeping past the leader on the outside and drawing off with authority, stopping the clock in 1:44.52 for the full distance. The race demonstrated his ability to accelerate in the stretch and, above all, to sustain a strong rhythm around two turns. After the race, trainer Todd Pletcher, a nine-time Eclipse Award–winning conditioner, explained that his pupil had taken a step forward: “He was traveling at a good rhythm and when John asked him, he responded. We liked what we saw, because it was his first experience around two turns and he handled it very professionally.” Pletcher also commented that they were pleased to have another prospect after losing a champion—an allusion to the injury of multiple Grade 1 winner Ted Noffey (Into Mischief)—and that the victory confirmed Nearly as a horse with a bright future ahead. In the same vein, jockey John Velazquez highlighted the colt’s maturity: “He broke well, got comfortable, but when the pressure came he responded; I got the feeling he has no problem running on the outside.” These statements reflect the confidence the team has in the colt and their satisfaction with how he adapted to a higher level of competition. The owners’ reaction was equally enthusiastic. Don Little Jr., president of Centennial Farms, stated that the patience and work of the team were being rewarded: “We’ve been buying six to eight colts a year, and when you get two classic prospects in a row [after Antiquarian, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup], it feels really good. We have a long way to go, but we’ve taken the first step.” Little emphasized that the operation had regained the excitement of pursuing the Triple Crown, an objective the ownership sets every year. Pletcher, for his part, noted that after winning three consecutive races at Gulfstream, they would consider staying at the track for the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28, though other routes could also be evaluated depending on how the colt recovers. The Holy Bull was Nearly’s third career start and his graded-stakes debut. His campaign began the previous fall, when he debuted at Aqueduct in October. That day he looked immature, was uncomfortable among horses, and finished sixth, twelve lengths back. Undeterred, his handlers decided to send him to Gulfstream Park in search of a more favorable environment. On November 22 he contested a Maiden Special Weight over seven furlongs; he sat third and, entering the stretch, accelerated to win by nine and one-quarter lengths, a striking maiden-breaking performance. The impression was so strong that Pletcher chose not to move him immediately into stakes company, instead giving him another conditional race to build confidence. On January 2 he faced an Allowance Optional Claiming, also at seven furlongs, and won by five lengths, showing greater maturity and tolerance to pressure. These prior efforts laid the foundation for his step up in the Holy Bull, where he encountered a longer distance and more seasoned rivals. The progression from his debut to his graded victory can be interpreted as a reflection of his pedigree. Nearly is a son of Not This Time, the Taylor Made stallion who has become one of the most sought-after sires in North America. A son of Giant’s Causeway, Not This Time won the Iroquois Stakes (G3) in his short racing career and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before an injury curtailed his campaign. As a stallion, he began covering modest books but quickly rose to prominence: in 2025 he ranked second by percentage of stakes winners (13% of runners), third by number of black-type horses (31), and fourth by graded winners (7) in North America. His success has been built by runners such as Epicenter (winner of the Louisiana Derby and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby), Just One Time (G1), and sprinter Princess Noor. With a current stud fee of $250,000, the demand for his services reflects breeders’ and owners’ confidence. Another key to Not This Time’s success is his compatibility with mares descending from A.P. Indy, a cross that has produced route horses such as Epicenter. Nearly represents that combination. His dam, Ib Prospecting, is a daughter of Mineshaft, the 2003 Horse of the Year and a son of A.P. Indy himself. According to an analysis by Centennial Farms, Ib Prospecting is a three-quarter sister to Frolic’s Revenge, winner of the Calder Oaks (G3), as both are by Mineshaft and out of daughters of Lindsay Frolic. Ib Prospecting’s second dam, Stormy Frolic, won two stakes in 2003 and is a daughter of champion Summer Squall, a full brother to A.P. Indy. This maternal branch has produced tough, durable horses; Lindsay Frolic also produced multiple winner Friendly Frolic, Wind Warrior, and broodmare Not Regular. In this way, Nearly’s pedigree combines the toughness and stamina of his female line with the class and precocity of Not This Time. Ib Prospecting’s family also stands out for its continuity: the mare has produced other colts currently in training. Her 2022 colt by Munnings was well regarded at auction, and her 2024 foal, a colt also by Not This Time, is already generating interest among breeders. The decision to repeat the cross with Not This Time reflects the belief that the initial pattern is sound and offers the right balance between speed and stamina. Observers who saw Nearly in the yearling sales recall his physical presence. While not exceptionally large, he showed a harmonious outline, with a well-set neck and a muscular hindquarter. John Velazquez noted after the Holy Bull that the colt had become more aggressive, a sign that he was “moving forward.” Agents such as Don Little Jr. have pointed out that Nearly’s conformation resembles that of his sire, with a strong back and a powerful hip suggesting stamina as distances increase. This assessment aligns with comments from breeders who view Not This Time’s offspring as long-striding, well-angled, and elastic—qualities that facilitate the transition to longer distances. Another aspect to consider is the patient handling of his campaign. Pletcher is known for not rushing his colts; he prefers to build confidence and experience before asking for major efforts. In Nearly’s case, the trainer explained that the goal was to give him a two-turn race before deciding on the next step. This approach seeks to avoid premature wear and ensure the colt reaches summer in peak condition. Thus, planning toward the Kentucky Derby involves assessing how he exits the Holy Bull and how many points are needed to secure a spot. For now, with his Holy Bull victory, Nearly earned 10 qualifying points. The Centennial Farms and Todd Pletcher team has several options to increase that total. A logical route would be to remain at Gulfstream and contest the Florida Derby (G1) in late March, which awards 100 points to the winner. This option is attractive for two reasons: the colt is unbeaten at the track, and the proximity to Pletcher’s base allows him to maintain his routine without travel. Alternatively, they could target the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in February or even the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in March, depending on the colt’s recovery and logistics. Owner Don Little Jr. indicated that no decision had yet been made, but that it was exciting to have such discussions. Analyzing his campaign with the Kentucky Derby in mind also requires reviewing the competition. The 2023 crop has produced several standout colts, and Nearly joins a growing list of Not This Time sons with classic potential. Other offspring of the sire, such as Just Steel (winner of the Southwest Stakes) and Braves Notion (runner-up in the Breeders’ Futurity), are also accumulating points. Within the same barn, Todd Pletcher has other candidates such as Paladin, Ottinho, and Iron Honor (trained for different owners), which will eventually force Velazquez to choose mounts as the Derby approaches. The abundance of talent is a “good problem” for Pletcher, but it brings management and strategic challenges. Beyond the numbers, the quality of his pedigree suggests that Nearly has the tools to excel over the Derby’s mile and a quarter. The influence of Not This Time provides precocity and cruising speed, while the Mineshaft and Summer Squall line contributes stamina and finishing power. Thoroughbred Daily News highlighted that Ib Prospecting is a three-quarter sister to multiple winner Frolic’s Revenge and that the maternal family produced Stormy Frolic, underscoring the line’s consistency. Moreover, the success of the Not This Time × A.P. Indy/Giant’s Causeway blend, as demonstrated by Epicenter and Just One Time, supports the projection that Nearly can deploy his natural stamina down the long Churchill Downs stretch. To assess his future, it is worth remembering that the Holy Bull has served as a springboard for several champions. Barbaro won the race in 2006 before capturing the Kentucky Derby. More recently, Tiz the Law took the Holy Bull in 2020 and later won the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. However, there are also cases of colts who shone in winter only to fade in spring. Hence Pletcher and Centennial Farms emphasize caution. “We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves; we know the season is long,” the accomplished trainer said. Their strategy will focus on protecting the colt’s integrity and selecting races where he is comfortable. Managing his workload also involves spacing out morning works. As is customary in Pletcher’s barn, Nearly has recorded light breezes between races and a sharper work about ten days before each start. This method—sometimes dubbed “the Todd school”—aims to maintain fitness without taxing the muscles. According to statements from Gulfstream Park, the team planned to give him a brief rest after the Holy Bull to evaluate his weight and attitude before making the next decision. Health is another crucial consideration. Not This Time sires robust stock, but ensuring that hocks and hooves withstand the rigors of route racing is essential. Veterinarians such as Dr. Larry Bramlage note that Not This Time’s progeny typically have good bone structure and correct conformation, but recommend close monitoring of the lumbar region and growth plates to prevent injury, especially during adolescence. To date, no serious issues have been reported in Nearly, reinforcing the decision to proceed cautiously. From a market perspective, the popularity of Not This Time and the strength of the female family were reflected in the yearling sale where Nearly was purchased for $1,000,000. Don Little Jr. and magnate Peter Brant (owner of White Birch Farm) joined forces to bid on the colt, viewing him as a medium-term stallion prospect. The price paid underscores the faith of experienced investors that, beyond his potential on the racetrack, his genetics will allow him to pass on his talent. Moreover, the combination of an emerging sire with a proven female family is always attractive at auction. Another point to highlight is Centennial Farms’ policy of acquiring horses with a long-term vision. In recent years, the operation has sought lines that combine speed and stamina, and the partnership with Todd Pletcher has been fundamental in developing their top colts. Antiquarian’s victory in the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup and Nearly’s emergence in the Holy Bull place them in a privileged position. Their executives state that they will continue to prioritize quality over quantity, translating into purchasing fewer but more carefully selected yearlings. The influence of the connections also extends to the racing press. Thoroughbred Daily News reported that Pletcher was pleased with Nearly’s efficiency around two turns, emphasizing that the colt is manageable and responds well to his rider. This trait is essential for tackling races with traffic and sharp turns like the Kentucky Derby. The same article noted that Ib Prospecting had produced other well-sold colts and that her 2024 colt by Not This Time would be a point of interest at future sales. As the season progresses, fans will closely follow Nearly’s development. On an ever-changing Derby Trail, the Centennial Farms colt stands out for his progression, genetic solidity, and the backing of an experienced team. His Holy Bull Stakes (G3) victory showed that he can compete with the elite of his generation and possesses the mentality needed to stay focused over increasing distances. The coming weeks will be decisive: preparation plans, point allocation, and physical condition will determine whether he ultimately earns a place at Churchill Downs. What is certain is that the colt has emerged as one of the circuit’s leaders, and his story combines elements that captivate breeders and fans alike: a select origin, an upward-trending campaign, a motivated team, and the dream of reaching the Kentucky Derby.

Canaletto announced his arrival on the big stage with a debut that did not go unnoticed at Gulfstream Park. The dark bay three-year-old colt, a son of Into Mischief, appeared in an $80,000 Maiden Special Weight over one mile on dirt, a demanding test for a debutant both in terms of distance and the competitive context of the South Florida circuit. From the break, he showed an unusual level of maturity for an inexperienced horse, settling into a stalking position without wasting unnecessary energy, allowing the race to develop in front of him. From the far turn, Canaletto began to advance with authority, took control with ease, and progressively drew away from his rivals, crossing the wire with a wide margin, close to eight lengths, without his rider needing to ask him at any point. Beyond the margin, what ultimately convinced observers and professionals alike was the manner: a sustained acceleration, a clear change of gears, and the ability to continue increasing the advantage in the final stages, going from a seventh furlong in 12.75 seconds to an even faster final furlong in 12.31, a detail rarely seen in debutants and one that speaks both to athletic condition and mentality. Canaletto (Into Mischief) winning by eight lengths alongside Flavien Prat in his debut. That initial impact on the track immediately shifted the focus to the horse himself and to everything surrounding him. Canaletto is not an improvised project nor a casual surprise. He is an individual conceived, bred, and acquired within the logic of the world’s leading international programs. Bred by Lothenbach Stables, he was foaled on February 28, 2023, and from an early stage was identified as a colt with physical presence and high-level structure. That perception was confirmed when he entered the ring at the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, where he was purchased for $1,000,000. Behind the hammer were names that need no introduction: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, and Brook T. Smith. The presence of Magnier and Tabor, historic pillars of Coolmore, alongside Brant, one of the most influential owners in the United States, not only validated the colt’s quality but made it clear from that moment that Canaletto was viewed as more than just a racehorse: he was a long-term project, with an eye toward both the racetrack and, eventually, the breeding shed as a stallion prospect for Ashford Stud. Canaletto (Into Mischief) in the Fasig-Tipton sales ring in New York in August 2024. That level of investment is rarely explained solely by an attractive physical appearance. The deeper support lies in the pedigree, and in Canaletto’s case, the genetic analysis is as solid as it is appealing. On the sire line, he is by Into Mischief, the undisputed leader among North American stallions, capable of producing champions, classic winners, and stallions of enormous commercial impact. Into Mischief has shown uncommon versatility, transmitting precocity, class, and a notable ability to adapt to different distances and surfaces, an essential trait for programs seeking both racing success and residual stud value. But if the sire is a guarantee, it is the female line that elevates Canaletto to another level. His dam, Distorted Music, is a daughter of Distorted Humor, one of the great genetic pillars of recent decades, responsible for transmitting toughness, mental quality, and a proven ability to perform at the highest level. The Into Mischief–Distorted Humor cross is one of the most successful nicks in modern racing and has produced horses of enormous impact, both on the track and at stud. That genetic pattern is no accident, and in Canaletto it is reinforced by an exceptional female family. Distorted Music is a granddaughter of the influential Note Musicale, from whom branches one of the most powerful maternal lines in the modern Stud Book. Note Musicale, a daughter of Sadler’s Wells, did not race but became an extraordinary broodmare. She produced Musical Chimes, a classic winner in France, and Music Note, one of the leading fillies of her generation in the United States. Music Note, a daughter of A.P. Indy, was a multiple Grade 1 winner in New York, including races of the stature of the Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose, Gazelle, Ballerina, and Beldame, earning more than $1.4 million and confirming herself as an elite runner in both class and consistency. Music Note’s influence did not end on the racetrack. As a broodmare, her impact has been equally significant. She is the dam of Mystic Guide, by Ghostzapper, winner of the 2021 Dubai World Cup (G1) and now a stallion on the Darley roster, representing this family at the highest international level. She is also the dam of Gershwin, by Distorted Humor, winner of the Penn Mile (G3) in 2021 and currently a stallion at Haras La Valkiria in Argentina—a fact that not only reinforces the family’s genetic projection but also demonstrates its ability to adapt and leave its mark in different markets and breeding systems. That a half-brother to Mystic Guide and Gershwin is now emerging as a rising figure in the United States is no coincidence, but rather the logical continuation of a female line that has proven, generation after generation, its ability to produce top-class horses. From a genetic structure standpoint, Canaletto also presents a very interesting balance. There is no close inbreeding between sire and dam, which provides genetic freshness, yet there is a concentration of proven influences in terms of class and stamina. This is exactly the type of profile sought by operations such as Coolmore when considering a potential stallion for Ashford Stud. Canaletto is a horse capable of winning or competing at the highest level, with a pedigree attractive to both the U.S. and international markets, and with a female family capable of sustaining his value beyond individual race results. That genetic potential is reinforced by the physical, a key aspect in Canaletto’s evaluation dating back to his yearling days. When observing images prior to his sale, his overall balance immediately stands out, a quality bloodstock agents and trainers consider fundamental. Craig Rounsefell often emphasizes that in elite yearlings, “the first thing you look for is balance: a long, well-sloped shoulder that connects naturally to a powerful hindquarter, forming a functional trapezoid that allows for an efficient stride.” Canaletto fits that description perfectly. His long, sloping shoulder suggests good reach, while his relatively short, strong back speaks to efficient energy transmission. Canaletto (Into Mischief) as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Sale in August 2024. His hindquarters—long and muscular—are another major strength. Trainers such as Robbie Griffiths have repeatedly pointed out that a well-developed rear end is key not only for acceleration but also for sustaining effort in the final stages, something Canaletto already showed in his debut. His limbs, straight and well aligned, with sufficient bone and clean joints, reinforce the idea of durability, a critical factor when projecting a horse for demanding campaigns and, eventually, for a stallion career. None of this is surprising when considering how he was selected and prepared. Chad Brown, his trainer, is not known for rushing processes or forcing timelines, especially with horses he views as long-term projects. In his barn, Canaletto joins a deep group of three-year-olds with major aspirations, alongside names such as Paladin, Ottinho, Iron Honor, and Hedge Ratio. Internal competition is fierce, which speaks both to the quality of the roster and to the challenge of standing out within it. Added to this is another significant factor: the presence of Flavien Prat, one of the most sought-after jockeys in the country, who will eventually have to decide which of these projects to align with on the classic trail, a decision that often proves as strategic as it is sporting. Canaletto’s immediate future opens up a range of possibilities as attractive as they are challenging. After his debut, the logical next step is to find a second start that allows him to continue gaining experience without compromising his development. In that sense, races such as the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28 appear as an ambitious but coherent option if the colt confirms in the mornings what he showed in the afternoon. Another plausible alternative is the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7, a race that has historically served as a platform for ascending horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby. It is also possible that his team opts for an intermediate-level allowance, aiming to polish details and build a stronger foundation before taking on the elite of his generation. Whatever path is chosen, the ultimate goal is to measure Canaletto against the best three-year-olds of the 2023 crop and assess just how far he can go. The Kentucky Derby is a comprehensive examination that tests genetics, physicality, mentality, and management. For a horse with Coolmore’s backing, the bar is necessarily high. Becoming a Grade 1 winner is not only a sporting dream, but the key that definitively opens the doors of Ashford Stud and international stallion status.