Nearly Is Another Not This Time to Join the Derby Trail After Winning the Holy Bull

Nearly, a colt by the prolific sire Not This Time, burst onto the North American three-year-old scene with a decisive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His win, achieved after a tactically patient trip and a powerful finishing kick, confirmed the talent his connections had been seeing in the mornings and placed him among the leaders on the road to the Kentucky Derby. This article aims to analyze in depth the rise of the Centennial Farms runner, recovering testimony from his connections, reconstructing his brief but effective campaign, breaking down his pedigree and the strength of his female family, and projecting his chances heading toward the Run for the Roses.

Nearly (Not This Time) remains undefeated in the track of Gulfstream Park.

On January 25, 2026, racing attention focused on Gulfstream Park, where ten three-year-old colts contested the Holy Bull Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile (1,700 meters) race awarding qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. Nearly went off as the second choice in the wagering, tracking pacesetter Cannoneer through the early stages. The opening quarter in 23.81 seconds and the half-mile in 45.96 reflected a selective pace. Rounding the far turn, jockey John Velazquez asked the dark bay for more; the response was immediate, sweeping past the leader on the outside and drawing off with authority, stopping the clock in 1:44.52 for the full distance. The race demonstrated his ability to accelerate in the stretch and, above all, to sustain a strong rhythm around two turns.

After the race, trainer Todd Pletcher, a nine-time Eclipse Award–winning conditioner, explained that his pupil had taken a step forward: “He was traveling at a good rhythm and when John asked him, he responded. We liked what we saw, because it was his first experience around two turns and he handled it very professionally.” Pletcher also commented that they were pleased to have another prospect after losing a champion—an allusion to the injury of multiple Grade 1 winner Ted Noffey (Into Mischief)—and that the victory confirmed Nearly as a horse with a bright future ahead. In the same vein, jockey John Velazquez highlighted the colt’s maturity: “He broke well, got comfortable, but when the pressure came he responded; I got the feeling he has no problem running on the outside.” These statements reflect the confidence the team has in the colt and their satisfaction with how he adapted to a higher level of competition.

The owners’ reaction was equally enthusiastic. Don Little Jr., president of Centennial Farms, stated that the patience and work of the team were being rewarded: “We’ve been buying six to eight colts a year, and when you get two classic prospects in a row [after Antiquarian, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup], it feels really good. We have a long way to go, but we’ve taken the first step.” Little emphasized that the operation had regained the excitement of pursuing the Triple Crown, an objective the ownership sets every year. Pletcher, for his part, noted that after winning three consecutive races at Gulfstream, they would consider staying at the track for the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28, though other routes could also be evaluated depending on how the colt recovers.

The Holy Bull was Nearly’s third career start and his graded-stakes debut. His campaign began the previous fall, when he debuted at Aqueduct in October. That day he looked immature, was uncomfortable among horses, and finished sixth, twelve lengths back. Undeterred, his handlers decided to send him to Gulfstream Park in search of a more favorable environment. On November 22 he contested a Maiden Special Weight over seven furlongs; he sat third and, entering the stretch, accelerated to win by nine and one-quarter lengths, a striking maiden-breaking performance. The impression was so strong that Pletcher chose not to move him immediately into stakes company, instead giving him another conditional race to build confidence. On January 2 he faced an Allowance Optional Claiming, also at seven furlongs, and won by five lengths, showing greater maturity and tolerance to pressure. These prior efforts laid the foundation for his step up in the Holy Bull, where he encountered a longer distance and more seasoned rivals.

The progression from his debut to his graded victory can be interpreted as a reflection of his pedigree. Nearly is a son of Not This Time, the Taylor Made stallion who has become one of the most sought-after sires in North America. A son of Giant’s Causeway, Not This Time won the Iroquois Stakes (G3) in his short racing career and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before an injury curtailed his campaign. As a stallion, he began covering modest books but quickly rose to prominence: in 2025 he ranked second by percentage of stakes winners (13% of runners), third by number of black-type horses (31), and fourth by graded winners (7) in North America. His success has been built by runners such as Epicenter (winner of the Louisiana Derby and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby), Just One Time (G1), and sprinter Princess Noor. With a current stud fee of $250,000, the demand for his services reflects breeders’ and owners’ confidence.

Another key to Not This Time’s success is his compatibility with mares descending from A.P. Indy, a cross that has produced route horses such as Epicenter. Nearly represents that combination. His dam, Ib Prospecting, is a daughter of Mineshaft, the 2003 Horse of the Year and a son of A.P. Indy himself. According to an analysis by Centennial Farms, Ib Prospecting is a three-quarter sister to Frolic’s Revenge, winner of the Calder Oaks (G3), as both are by Mineshaft and out of daughters of Lindsay Frolic. Ib Prospecting’s second dam, Stormy Frolic, won two stakes in 2003 and is a daughter of champion Summer Squall, a full brother to A.P. Indy. This maternal branch has produced tough, durable horses; Lindsay Frolic also produced multiple winner Friendly Frolic, Wind Warrior, and broodmare Not Regular. In this way, Nearly’s pedigree combines the toughness and stamina of his female line with the class and precocity of Not This Time.

Ib Prospecting’s family also stands out for its continuity: the mare has produced other colts currently in training. Her 2022 colt by Munnings was well regarded at auction, and her 2024 foal, a colt also by Not This Time, is already generating interest among breeders. The decision to repeat the cross with Not This Time reflects the belief that the initial pattern is sound and offers the right balance between speed and stamina.

Observers who saw Nearly in the yearling sales recall his physical presence. While not exceptionally large, he showed a harmonious outline, with a well-set neck and a muscular hindquarter. John Velazquez noted after the Holy Bull that the colt had become more aggressive, a sign that he was “moving forward.” Agents such as Don Little Jr. have pointed out that Nearly’s conformation resembles that of his sire, with a strong back and a powerful hip suggesting stamina as distances increase. This assessment aligns with comments from breeders who view Not This Time’s offspring as long-striding, well-angled, and elastic—qualities that facilitate the transition to longer distances.

Another aspect to consider is the patient handling of his campaign. Pletcher is known for not rushing his colts; he prefers to build confidence and experience before asking for major efforts. In Nearly’s case, the trainer explained that the goal was to give him a two-turn race before deciding on the next step. This approach seeks to avoid premature wear and ensure the colt reaches summer in peak condition. Thus, planning toward the Kentucky Derby involves assessing how he exits the Holy Bull and how many points are needed to secure a spot.

For now, with his Holy Bull victory, Nearly earned 10 qualifying points. The Centennial Farms and Todd Pletcher team has several options to increase that total. A logical route would be to remain at Gulfstream and contest the Florida Derby (G1) in late March, which awards 100 points to the winner. This option is attractive for two reasons: the colt is unbeaten at the track, and the proximity to Pletcher’s base allows him to maintain his routine without travel. Alternatively, they could target the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in February or even the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in March, depending on the colt’s recovery and logistics. Owner Don Little Jr. indicated that no decision had yet been made, but that it was exciting to have such discussions.

Analyzing his campaign with the Kentucky Derby in mind also requires reviewing the competition. The 2023 crop has produced several standout colts, and Nearly joins a growing list of Not This Time sons with classic potential. Other offspring of the sire, such as Just Steel (winner of the Southwest Stakes) and Braves Notion (runner-up in the Breeders’ Futurity), are also accumulating points. Within the same barn, Todd Pletcher has other candidates such as Paladin, Ottinho, and Iron Honor (trained for different owners), which will eventually force Velazquez to choose mounts as the Derby approaches. The abundance of talent is a “good problem” for Pletcher, but it brings management and strategic challenges.

Beyond the numbers, the quality of his pedigree suggests that Nearly has the tools to excel over the Derby’s mile and a quarter. The influence of Not This Time provides precocity and cruising speed, while the Mineshaft and Summer Squall line contributes stamina and finishing power. Thoroughbred Daily News highlighted that Ib Prospecting is a three-quarter sister to multiple winner Frolic’s Revenge and that the maternal family produced Stormy Frolic, underscoring the line’s consistency. Moreover, the success of the Not This Time × A.P. Indy/Giant’s Causeway blend, as demonstrated by Epicenter and Just One Time, supports the projection that Nearly can deploy his natural stamina down the long Churchill Downs stretch.

To assess his future, it is worth remembering that the Holy Bull has served as a springboard for several champions. Barbaro won the race in 2006 before capturing the Kentucky Derby. More recently, Tiz the Law took the Holy Bull in 2020 and later won the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. However, there are also cases of colts who shone in winter only to fade in spring. Hence Pletcher and Centennial Farms emphasize caution. “We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves; we know the season is long,” the accomplished trainer said. Their strategy will focus on protecting the colt’s integrity and selecting races where he is comfortable.

Managing his workload also involves spacing out morning works. As is customary in Pletcher’s barn, Nearly has recorded light breezes between races and a sharper work about ten days before each start. This method—sometimes dubbed “the Todd school”—aims to maintain fitness without taxing the muscles. According to statements from Gulfstream Park, the team planned to give him a brief rest after the Holy Bull to evaluate his weight and attitude before making the next decision.

Health is another crucial consideration. Not This Time sires robust stock, but ensuring that hocks and hooves withstand the rigors of route racing is essential. Veterinarians such as Dr. Larry Bramlage note that Not This Time’s progeny typically have good bone structure and correct conformation, but recommend close monitoring of the lumbar region and growth plates to prevent injury, especially during adolescence. To date, no serious issues have been reported in Nearly, reinforcing the decision to proceed cautiously.

From a market perspective, the popularity of Not This Time and the strength of the female family were reflected in the yearling sale where Nearly was purchased for $1,000,000. Don Little Jr. and magnate Peter Brant (owner of White Birch Farm) joined forces to bid on the colt, viewing him as a medium-term stallion prospect. The price paid underscores the faith of experienced investors that, beyond his potential on the racetrack, his genetics will allow him to pass on his talent. Moreover, the combination of an emerging sire with a proven female family is always attractive at auction.

Another point to highlight is Centennial Farms’ policy of acquiring horses with a long-term vision. In recent years, the operation has sought lines that combine speed and stamina, and the partnership with Todd Pletcher has been fundamental in developing their top colts. Antiquarian’s victory in the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup and Nearly’s emergence in the Holy Bull place them in a privileged position. Their executives state that they will continue to prioritize quality over quantity, translating into purchasing fewer but more carefully selected yearlings.

The influence of the connections also extends to the racing press. Thoroughbred Daily News reported that Pletcher was pleased with Nearly’s efficiency around two turns, emphasizing that the colt is manageable and responds well to his rider. This trait is essential for tackling races with traffic and sharp turns like the Kentucky Derby. The same article noted that Ib Prospecting had produced other well-sold colts and that her 2024 colt by Not This Time would be a point of interest at future sales.

As the season progresses, fans will closely follow Nearly’s development. On an ever-changing Derby Trail, the Centennial Farms colt stands out for his progression, genetic solidity, and the backing of an experienced team. His Holy Bull Stakes (G3) victory showed that he can compete with the elite of his generation and possesses the mentality needed to stay focused over increasing distances. The coming weeks will be decisive: preparation plans, point allocation, and physical condition will determine whether he ultimately earns a place at Churchill Downs. What is certain is that the colt has emerged as one of the circuit’s leaders, and his story combines elements that captivate breeders and fans alike: a select origin, an upward-trending campaign, a motivated team, and the dream of reaching the Kentucky Derby.